Macroeconomic Effects of the Productive Factor Price Distortion in China:Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model
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摘要: 生产要素价格市场化改革是完善社会主义市场经济体制的关键。将劳动力价格和资本价格扭曲纳入DSGE模型, 从一般均衡视角分析生产要素价格扭曲对消费、投资、总产出和全要素生产率等变量的影响, 并进一步分析其对社会福利损失的影响。研究结果表明: (1)随着劳动力价格正向扭曲趋近于0, 宏观经济变量的均衡值均逐渐减小, 而随着资本价格负向扭曲趋近于0, 除了就业之外, 其他经济变量的均衡值均逐渐增加, 且资本价格负向扭曲对宏观经济变量均衡值的影响幅度更大。(2)劳动力价格正向扭曲趋近于0所形成的冲击对宏观经济变量波动具有负面影响, 而资本价格负向扭曲趋近于0所形成的冲击对宏观经济变量波动具有正面影响, 且劳动力价格正向扭曲冲击对宏观经济变量波动的影响幅度更大。(3)随着劳动力价格正向扭曲趋近于0, 社会福利损失随之增加, 而随着资本价格负向扭曲趋近于0, 社会福利损失随之减少, 且劳动力价格正向扭曲对社会福利损失的影响幅度更大。因而推动我国生产要素配置市场化改革, 应减少政府对资本市场的不当干预, 最大限度地发挥市场对资本价格的决定作用。Abstract: Market-oriented reform of the price of production factors is the key to improving the socialist market economic system. This paper incorporates labor price distortion and capital price distortion into a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model, and investigates effects of these distortions on several essential macroeconomic variables from the perspective of DSGE. The results show that: Firstly, as the positive distortion of the labor price approaches to 0, the equilibrium value of macroeconomic variables will gradually decrease, however, except the equilibrium of the employment, as the negative distortion of the capital price approaches to 0, the equilibrium values of other economic variables will gradually increase.; the positive distortion of the capital price has a greater impact on the equilibrium value of macroeconomic variables. Secondly, the shock caused by the positive distortion of the labor price as it approaches to 0 has a negative impact on the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables, but the shock caused by the negative distortion of the capital price as it approaches to 0 has a positive impact on the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables; the positive distortion of the labor price has a greater impact on the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables. Thirdly as the positive distortion of the labor price approaches to 0, the social welfare loss will gradually increase, but as the negative distortion of the capital price approaches to 0, the social welfare loss will gradually decrease; the positive distortion of the labor price has a greater impact on the social welfare loss.To promote the market-oriented reform of production factor allocation in China, it is suggested to reduce the government's improper intervention in the capital market and maximize the role of market mechanisms in determining the capital price.
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Key words:
- production factor /
- factor price /
- price distortion /
- labor price /
- capital price /
- macroeconomic /
- macroeconomic effect /
- social welfare loss /
- DSGE model
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图 2 劳动力价格正向扭曲冲击对宏观经济波动的影响
说明：实线(-24%)和差号连线(-30%)为扭曲偏离于0情形，虚线(-24%)和实点连线(-30%)为扭曲趋近于0情形。
表 1 生产函数随机前沿模型估计结果
lncap lnlab con lngdp 0.571 5***(0.003 5) 0.499 9***(0.043 9) -0.128 9*(0.296 1) 说明：***、**、*分别对应系数在1%、5%和10%水平上显著；括号中为系数对应的标准差。表 2同。 
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表 2 生产要素价格扭曲对宏观经济影响的回归结果
lngdp lncc lnik lntfp lnX 0.909 3***(0.003 2) 0.928 4***(0.003 2) 0.753 1***(0.011 9) 0.928 6***(0.001 7) τK -0.049 7***(0.001 0) -0.028 5***(0.001 7) -0.166 3***(0.007 3) -0.002 5**(0.000 1) τN -0.030 9(0.013 0) -0.074 3(0.018 2) -0.343 0*(0.030 9) -0.009 3(0.000 2) con 1.1358***(0.036 3) 0.890 6***(0.040 2) 3.070 6***(0.136 0) 0.066 1***(0.001 3) N 480 480 480 480 AR(1) 0.000 3 0.000 1 0.000 4 0.011 8 AR(2) 0.769 3 0.686 0 0.034 2 0.069 6 Sargen 0.477 9 0.528 8 0.466 1 0.437 5
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表 3 宏观经济变量的统计特征比较
实际经济 模拟经济 与Yc标准
差的比值自相关
系数(-1)标准差 与Yc的
相关系数与Yc标准
差的比值自相关
系数(-1)标准差 与Yc的
相关系数Yc 0.856 2 0.021 5 1 1 0.344 7 0.015 3 1 1 C 0.688 8 0.019 1 0.514 5 0.886 7 0.411 8 0.012 1 0.721 7 0.791 1 IKc 0.251 3 0.052 3 0.109 4 2.430 6 0.295 6 0.043 2 0.812 4 2.813 4 说明:实际经济变量的数据均通过以2000年为基期的标准化处理并进行HP滤波后计算得到。
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表 4 劳动力价格正向扭曲变动对宏观经济变量均衡值的影响
% τN C I Y TFP N W -10 -14.71 -3.69 -3.69 -0.26 -3.18 -16.01 -20 -4.72 -1.09 -1.09 -0.08 -0.94 -5.15 -24 - - - - - - -30 8.09 1.68 1.68 0.12 1.44 8.83 -40 25.16 4.63 4.63 0.32 3.97 27.50
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表 5 资本价格负向扭曲变动对宏观经济均衡值的影响
% τK C I Y TFP N W 10 16.38 27.83 14.34 1.73 -1.17 15.73 20 3.41 5.59 3.02 0.38 -0.25 3.28 23 - - - - - - 30 -7.23 -11.50 -6.47 -0.85 0.54 -6.99 40 -16.08 -24.88 -14.52 -1.98 1.24 -15.59
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表 6 劳动力价格正向扭曲对社会福利损失的影响
τN σgdp σπ loss △loss -10% 0.015 3 0.006 9 0.011 1 18.491 7 -20% 0.013 1 0.006 6 0.009 9 5.160 8 -24% 0.012 3 0.006 5 0.009 4 - -30% 0.011 0 0.006 4 0.008 7 -7.562 8 -40% 0.009 0 0.006 1 0.007 5 -19.695 4
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表 7 资本价格负向扭曲对社会福利损失的影响
τK σgdp σπ loss △loss 10% 0.011 6 0.006 4 0.009 0 -4.037 1% 20% 0.012 1 0.006 5 0.009 3 -0.937 4% 23% 0.012 3 0.006 5 0.009 4 - 30% 0.012 6 0.006 6 0.009 6 2.199 6% 40% 0.013 1 0.006 7 0.009 9 5.352 6%
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