2019 Vol. 34, No. 4

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Economic Theory and Exploration
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Differences of National Image and Institutional Environment: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test of Trade Frictions with China
JIA Yu-cheng, ZHAI Zhong-yu
2019, 34(4): 4-17.
[Abstract](543) [FullText HTML] (227) [PDF 1618KB](20)
Abstract:
Based on the anti-dumping data initiated by 31 countries(regions) against China from 2006 to 2014, empirical research was conducted on the impact of economic policy uncertainty, differences of national image and institutional environment on trade frictions with China. The results show that: the uncertainty of economic policy, national image and trade friction are positively related; the income distribution gap will increase the positive spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty on trade friction; the difference in the level of political system will increase the positive spillover effect of negative image on trade friction; the differences in market development potential and ideology are all positively related to trade friction; the former has expanded the positive spillover effect of economic policy uncertainty on trade friction, and the latter has reduced the negative spillover effect of positive image, expanding the positive spillover effect of negative image. In view of the current severe international trade environment, China should, in the long run, adhere to openness and cooperation, optimize the business environment, and enhance the country's hard power by upgrading its soft power.
China's Economic Practice and School of Economics: 1978-2018
ZHOU Li
2019, 34(4): 18-32.
[Abstract](388) [FullText HTML] (137) [PDF 1067KB](20)
Abstract:
This paper reviewed the great course and great economic achievements of China's reform and opening up in the past 40 years from 1978 to 2018. It first reviewed the relevant theories of the western mainstream schools of economics mainly involved in the course of China's reform and opening up, including political economics, development economics, neoclassical economics, institutional economics, transitional economics, supply economics. Schools of Chinese economics including new structural economics and new supply economics have been discussed that are the theoretical magic weapon and guidance for China's supply-side structural reform and the policy proposition to solve the deep structural imbalance in China's economy. It is argued that the Chinese School to economics can guide the current reform to smoothly pass the critical window period and help China's economy develop steadily at a higher quality level. It is proposed that with theoretical self-confidence and authority, China's School of economics should adhere to the reform direction of socialist market economy, continually push forward China's reform and opening-up.
Fiscal and Public Administration
Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data
HU Qian
2019, 34(4): 33-48.
[Abstract](745) [FullText HTML] (279) [PDF 1977KB](499)
Abstract:
Based on China's provincial panel data from 1987 to 2017, this paper empirically analyzes the labor supply effect of China's population aging, and further explores heterogeneity in labor supply effect in view of the stage, region, industry and gender. Empirical results show that with the deepening of population aging by 1%, the potential labor supply and the real labor supply decrease by about 2%, and the labor participation rate of the economically active population decreases by 1.2%; however, the labor participation rate of the employed population has not yet shown a downward trend; in addition, the aging of the population has significantly improved the level of labor proficiency, but its impact on the level of education and labor intensity of the labor force is not significant. Therefore, China must grasp the turn of the population policy and regulate the governance choices of the aging society actively and prudently.
On the Spatial Effect of Competition of Environmental Protection Expenditure in Local Government
WANG Hua-chun, PING Yi, CUI Wei
2019, 34(4): 49-59.
[Abstract](295) [FullText HTML] (227) [PDF 2383KB](14)
Abstract:
China-style fiscal decentralization has created the possibility for local governments to compete in financial expenditure. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in mainland China from 2007 to 2016, and from the perspective of strategic interaction combined with the Moran index, local Moran index and spatial panel model, the paper empirically tests the existence of competition of environmental protection expenditure among local governments and the spatial effect of competition of environmental protection expenditure on environmental pollution. The results show that there is competition among local governments in environmental protection expenditure, which belongs to strategy imitation; at the same time, the competition of environmental protection expenditure has spill-over effect. Further analysis shows that local governments' environmental protection expenditure in adjacent spaces is conducive to reducing pollutant emissions in the region. Therefore, it is an important policy choice to change the performance appraisal mechanism so as to increase environmental protection expenditure, optimize the upgrading of industrial structure and reduce pollution emissions, make full use of market mechanism and public participation in environmental protection supervision, and explore the coordinated regional governance mode for environmental pollution.
Finance and Capital Markets
The Impact of Heterogeneity in Risk Attitude on Investment Behavior: An Experimental Study of the Selection of WMPs in Commercial Banks
LIU Wei, ZUO Peng-fei, GAO Zhi-feng
2019, 34(4): 60-71.
[Abstract](294) [FullText HTML] (195) [PDF 1007KB](14)
Abstract:
Based on the investment behavior of Wealth Management Products (WMPs) investigated with the method of Selection Experiment, this paper analyzes the different preferences of investors with heterogeneous risk attitudes and the mechanism of risk attitudes towards investors' choices. The results show that there are heterogeneities in investors' preferences for the three attributes of minimum amount, term and return type of WMPs, while there is no heterogeneity in preferences for issuing bank and Yield to Maturity; the investors with heterogeneous risk attitudes depend on the effect of different attributes of the securities to make their decisions. This paper empirically analyzes the investor behavior in the WMPs market, and also provides reference for the design of financial products.
Managerial Power Intensity, Internal and External Monitoring and Stock Price Crash Risk
ZHENG Shan-shan
2019, 34(4): 72-86.
[Abstract](444) [FullText HTML] (505) [PDF 1040KB](26)
Abstract:
In view of the financial anomaly of "stock price plunge", this paper selects A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2017 as the research object, uses principal component analysis method to construct a comprehensive measurement index of management power, and deeply analyzes the impact of management power on stock price crash risk and the regulatory role of internal and external monitoring on the relationship between them. The results show that the greater the managerial power, the higher the stock price crash risk of listed companies; at the same time, effective internal control and more analyst following can inhibit the role of managerial power in promoting the risk of stock price crash, but the external supervision of security analysts only plays a role in non-optimistic expected sample companies. The findings of this study not only enrich the literature on the economic consequences of managerial power, but also are of significance theoretically and practically in preventing the risk of stock price crash and promoting the stable development of the stock market.
Corporate Finance and Accounting
Will the Group's Concentrated Liabilities Affect Corporate Innovation
XIE Huo-bao, DING Long-fei
2019, 34(4): 87-100.
[Abstract](296) [FullText HTML] (203) [PDF 1085KB](6)
Abstract:
In this paper, the patent data of all A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016 were used to study the impact of concentrated liabilities on the conglomerate's innovation input and innovation output. The results show that in the same conditions, the centralized liabilities can alleviate the financing constraints or aggravate the agency problems of the parent company, thus expanding the innovation investment, while the group's centralized liabilities can reduce the cash holding level or lead to the short-sightedness of the subsidiary managers, thus restraining innovation output. Extensive analysis shows that the effect of concentrated liabilities on the increase of innovation investment is more prominent in conglomerates with weaker external supervision and higher ratio of the subsidiaries holding cash; the guarantee of parent company to subsidiary can restrain the negative relation between concentrated debt and innovation output. This conclusion highlights the agency problem between the parent and subsidiary company from the perspective of enterprise boundary and supports the hypothesis that the conglomerate is the root of parasite.
The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Enterprise Science and Technology Innovation
SHEN Ming-hao, XIE Guan-xia, CHU Peng-fei
2019, 34(4): 101-112.
[Abstract](506) [FullText HTML] (562)
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Based on the data of all A-share listed companies in China from 2008 to 2017, the panel fixed effect model is employed to empirically analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on S & T innovation in enterprises. The results indicate that in the face of the uncertainty of economic policies, enterprises will enhance their innovation to seek their own development, and economic policy uncertainty will promote the technological innovation of enterprises; in terms of the heterogeneity of the company's own attributes, companies with small financing constraints, strong market power and state-owned attributes have the advantage of capabilities improving their technological innovation, but are less susceptible to future uncertainties, so the role of economic policy uncertainty in promotion is weakened. Considering China's national conditions, enterprises with greater government subsidies are more likely to be directly affected by policy changes, so the economic policy uncertainty is more effective.

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