Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data

HU Qian

Volume 34 Issue 4

May 2021

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics > 2019 > 34(4): 33-48

HU Qian. Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2019, 34(4): 33-48.

Citation:

HU Qian. Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2019, 34(4): 33-48.

HU Qian. Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2019, 34(4): 33-48.

Citation:

HU Qian. Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2019, 34(4): 33-48.

PDF( 1977 KB)

Analyses of Labor Supply Effect of China's Population Aging: Based on the Provincial Panel Data

HU Qian

School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received Date: 2019-04-24
Available Online: 2021-05-22
Publish Date: 2019-07-28

Abstract

Abstract

Based on China's provincial panel data from 1987 to 2017, this paper empirically analyzes the labor supply effect of China's population aging, and further explores heterogeneity in labor supply effect in view of the stage, region, industry and gender. Empirical results show that with the deepening of population aging by 1%, the potential labor supply and the real labor supply decrease by about 2%, and the labor participation rate of the economically active population decreases by 1.2%; however, the labor participation rate of the employed population has not yet shown a downward trend; in addition, the aging of the population has significantly improved the level of labor proficiency, but its impact on the level of education and labor intensity of the labor force is not significant. Therefore, China must grasp the turn of the population policy and regulate the governance choices of the aging society actively and prudently.
- population aging,
- labor supply,
- labor supply scale,
- quality of labor supply,
- population policy

FullText(HTML)

References(22)

References

[1]	胡湛, 彭希哲. 应对中国人口老龄化的治理选择[J]. 中国社会科学, 2018(12): 134-155. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZSHK201812007.htm
[2]	汪伟, 刘玉飞, 王文鹏. 长寿的宏观经济效应研究进展[J]. 经济学动态, 2018(9): 128-143. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJXD201809010.htm
[3]	BOLIN K, LINDGREN B, LUNDBORG P. Your next of kin or your own career?caring and working among the 50+ of Europe [J]. Journal of Health Economics, 2008, 27(3): 718-738. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.10.004
[4]	LAN LIU, XIAOYUAN DONG, XIAOYING ZHENG. Parental care and married women's labor supply in urban China [J]. Feminist Economics, 2010, 16(3): 169-192. doi: 10.1080/13545701.2010.493717
[5]	ADRIAAN KALWIJ, ARIE KAPTEYN, KLAAS DE VOS. Early retirement and employment of the young [R]. Rand Working Paper Series, 2009: No. WR-679.
[6]	BARBARA A BUTRICA, HOWARD M IAMS, KAREN E SMITH. The changing impact of social security on retirement income in the United States [J]. Social Security Bulletin, 2006, 65(3): 1-13. doi: 10.1057/9780230378605_4
[7]	JONATHAN GRUBER, KEVIN MILLIGAN, DAVID A WISE. Social security programs and retirement around the world: the relationship to youth employment [R]. NBER Working Paper, 2009: No. 14647.
[8]	CHULHEE LEE. Long-term changes in the economic activity of older males in Korea [J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2007, 56(1): 99-123. doi: 10.1086/520555
[9]	马忠东, 吕智浩, 叶孔嘉. 劳动参与率与劳动力增长: 1982~2050年[J]. 中国人口科学, 2010(1): 11-27. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKRK201001004.htm
[10]	齐明珠. 我国2010-2050年劳动力供给与需求预测[J]. 人口研究, 2010(5): 76-87. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKYZ201005009.htm
[11]	王立军, 马文秀. 人口老龄化与中国劳动力供给变迁[J]. 中国人口科学, 2012(6): 23-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKRK201206006.htm
[12]	郭瑜. 人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2013(11): 49-58. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJLL201311006.htm
[13]	童玉芬. 人口老龄化过程中我国劳动力供给变化特点及面临的挑战[J]. 人口研究, 2014(2): 52-60. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKYZ201402004.htm
[14]	钟水映, 赵雨, 任静儒. 我国地区间"未富先老"现象研究[J]. 人口研究, 2015(1): 63-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKYZ201501005.htm
[15]	彭秀健, DIETRICH FAUSTEN. 低生育率、人口老龄化与劳动力供给[J]. 中国劳动经济学, 2006(4): 43-63. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZLDJ200604006.htm
[16]	程杰. 养老保障的劳动供给效应[J]. 经济研究, 2014(10): 60-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJYJ201410006.htm
[17]	周祝平, 刘海斌. 人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2016(3): 58-70. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKYZ201603005.htm
[18]	齐红倩, 闫海春. 人口老龄化抑制中国经济增长了吗?[J]. 经济评论, 2018(6): 28-40. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJPL201806003.htm
[19]	汪伟, 刘玉飞, 彭冬冬. 人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究[J]. 中国工业经济, 2015(11): 47-61. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GGYY201511005.htm
[20]	陈秋霖, 许多, 周羿. 人口老龄化背景下人工智能的劳动力替代效应——基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据的分析[J]. 中国人口科学, 2018(6): 30-42. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKRK201806004.htm
[21]	SHUAIZHANG FENG, YINGYAO HU, ROBERT MOFFITT. Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China [J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2017, 45(2): 304-324. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596717300227
[22]	JIE CAI, A STOYANOV. Population aging and comparative advantage [J]. Journal of International Economics, 2016, 102(4): 1-21. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199616300630