Did Social Security Fee Cuts Boost Employment?Empirical Evidence from Online Recruitment Data

ZHAO Hai-zhu; CAI Wei-xing; LUO Lian-hua

Volume 37 Issue 4

Jul. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics > 2022 > 37(4): 56-70

ZHAO Hai-zhu, CAI Wei-xing, LUO Lian-hua. Did Social Security Fee Cuts Boost Employment?Empirical Evidence from Online Recruitment Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 37(4): 56-70.

Citation:

ZHAO Hai-zhu, CAI Wei-xing, LUO Lian-hua. Did Social Security Fee Cuts Boost Employment?Empirical Evidence from Online Recruitment Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 37(4): 56-70.

Citation:

PDF( 1131 KB)

Did Social Security Fee Cuts Boost Employment?Empirical Evidence from Online Recruitment Data

School of Finance, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China

Received Date: 2021-11-25
Available Online: 2022-07-12
Publish Date: 2022-07-28

Abstract

Abstract

A number of policies for social insurance fee cuts have been implemented to lower corporate costs and to stimulate vitality ever since the structural reforms on the mitigation side started. "Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Rate"(Referred to as Comprehensive Plan) in 2019 promoted the maximum cuts of corporate social insurance fee rate. The paper used data of daily online recruitment in 2019 and constructed a DID model to investigate the employment effects of the Comprehensive Plan by taking Zhejiang province as the control group and Jiangsu province as the treatment group, for the two provinces are economically and socially similar and Jiangsu's employer old-age insurance rate needs to be lowered as a result of the Comprehensive Plan whereas Zhejiang does not need to. It is found that the Comprehensive Plan promoted the expansion of recruitment agencies and have positive employment effects; the positive employment effects are achieved by promoting social entrepreneurship activities. The results of heterogeneity analysis prove that the Comprehensive Plan has a more significant role in promoting recruitment of no-work-experience-requirements, lower education, lower wages, and irregular payment industry, and in promoting jobs in cities with low pension insurance participation rates, weaker financial strength, and serious aging populations. The findings of this research reflect fee cuts help to improve the income distribution pattern between groups and regions, and are beneficial to promote the realization of common wealth. This study provides empirical evidence and enlightenment for lowering social insurance fee rate to stimulate enterprise vitality and stabilize social employment.
- social security system,
- social insurance premium,
- endowment insurance,
- fee cuts policy,
- employment effect,
- online recruitment,
- the Comprehensive Plan

FullText(HTML)

References(38)

References

[1]	宋晓梧. 企业社会保险缴费成本与政策调整取向[J]. 社会保障评论, 2017(1): 63-82. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SBPL201701009.htm
[2]	魏志华, 夏太彪. 社会保险缴费负担、财务压力与企业避税[J]. 中国工业经济, 2020(7): 136-154. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GGYY202007009.htm
[3]	张玉华, 路军. 社会保险费率调整对企业用工成本的影响[J]. 山东社会科学, 2019(8): 165-171. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDSK201908025.htm
[4]	郭磊, 胡晓蒙. 降低社会保险费率能减轻企业缴费负担吗——基于中央强制和地方自发的双重检验[J]. 科学决策, 2020(1): 1-26. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXJC202001002.htm
[5]	ARNOLD S. Forward shifting of a payroll tax under monopolistic competition[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1947, 61(2): 267-284. doi: 10.2307/1880669
[6]	BEACH C M, BALFOUR F S. Estimated payroll tax incidence and aggregate demand for labour in the United Kingdom[J]. Economica, 1983, 50(197): 35-48. doi: 10.2307/2554119
[7]	KAESTNER R. The effect of government-mandated benefits on youth employment[J]. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 1996, 50(1): 122-142. doi: 10.1177/001979399605000108
[8]	SAEZ E, SCHOEFER B, SEIM D. Payroll taxes, firm behavior, and rent sharing: evidence from a young workers' tax cut in Sweden[J]. American Economic Review, 2019, 109(5): 1717-1763. doi: 10.1257/aer.20171937
[9]	SAEZ E, MATSAGANIS M, TSAKLOGLOU P. Earnings determination and taxes: evidence from a cohort-based payroll tax reform in Greece[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012, 127(1): 493-533. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjr052
[10]	BAUER T, RIPHAHN R T. Employment effects of payroll taxes an empirical test for Germany[J]. Applied Economics, 2002, 34(7): 865-876. doi: 10.1080/00036840110058914
[11]	GRUBER J, KRUEGER A B. The incidence of mandated employer-provided insurance: lessons from workers' compensation insurance[J]. Tax Policy and the Economy, 1991, 5: 111-143. doi: 10.1086/tpe.5.20061802
[12]	GRUBER J. The incidence of mandated maternity benefits[J]. The American Economic Review, 1994, 84(3): 622-641.
[13]	GRUBER J. The incidence of payroll taxation: evidence from Chile[J]. Journal of Labor Economics, 1997, 15(S3): S72-S101. doi: 10.1086/209877
[14]	HAMERMESH D S. Labor demand in Latin America and the Caribbean: what does it tell us?[M]//HECKMAN J J, PAGÉS C. Law and employment: lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004: 553-562.
[15]	KUGLER A, KUGLER M. Labor market effects of payroll taxes in developing countries: evidence from Colombia[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2009, 57(2): 335-358. doi: 10.1086/592839
[16]	HERNÁNDEZ G. Payroll taxes and the labor market: a computable general equilibrium analysis[J]. Latin American Journal of Economics, 2012, 49(1): 99-123. doi: 10.7764/LAJE.49.1.99
[17]	MORALES L F, MEDINA C. Assessing the effect of payroll taxes on formal employment: the case of the 2012 tax reform in Colombia[J]. Economia, 2017, 18(1): 75-124.
[18]	KUGLER A D, KUGLER M D, HERRERA-PRADA L O. Do payroll tax breaks stimulate formality? evidence from Colombia's reform[J]. Economia, 2017, 18(1): 3-40.
[19]	FERNÁNDEZ C, VILLAR L. The impact of lowering the payroll tax on informality in Colombia[J]. Economia, 2017, 18(1): 125-155.
[20]	刘苓玲, 慕欣芸. 企业社会保险缴费的劳动力就业挤出效应研究——基于中国制造业上市公司数据的实证分析[J]. 保险研究, 2015(10): 107-118. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BXYJ201510010.htm
[21]	刘贯春, 叶永卫, 张军. 社会保险缴费、企业流动性约束与稳就业——基于《社会保险法》实施的准自然实验[J]. 中国工业经济, 2021(5): 152-169. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-480X.2021.05.009
[22]	陶纪坤, 张鹏飞. 社会保险缴费对劳动力需求的"挤出效应"[J]. 中国人口科学, 2016(6): 78-87, 127-128. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKRK201606009.htm
[23]	王海成, 苏梽芳, 渠慎宁. 就业保护制度对非正规就业的影响——来自中国省际面板数据的证据[J]. 中南财经政法大学学报, 2017(2): 32-40, 158-159. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-5230.2017.02.004
[24]	钱雪亚, 蒋卓余, 胡琼. 社会保险缴费对企业雇佣工资和规模的影响研究[J]. 统计研究, 2018(12): 68-79. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TJYJ201812006.htm
[25]	宋弘, 封进, 杨婉彧. 社保缴费率下降对企业社保缴费与劳动力雇佣的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2021(1): 90-104. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJYJ202101007.htm
[26]	尹恒, 张子尧, 曹斯蔚. 社会保险降费的就业促进效应——基于服务业的政策模拟[J]. 中国工业经济, 2021(5): 57-75. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-480X.2021.05.004
[27]	程煜, 汪润泉, 杨翠迎. 社会保险"阶段性降费"能否实现稳就业?——基于劳动供给的分析[J]. 财政研究, 2021(2): 96-110. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CZYJ202102009.htm
[28]	于新亮, 上官熠文, 于文广, 等. 养老保险缴费率、资本——技能互补与企业全要素生产率[J]. 中国工业经济, 2019(12): 96-114. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GGYY201912007.htm
[29]	赵健宇, 陆正飞. 养老保险缴费比例会影响企业生产效率吗?[J]. 经济研究, 2018(10): 97-112. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJYJ201810008.htm
[30]	唐珏, 封进. 社会保险缴费对企业资本劳动比的影响——以21世纪初省级养老保险征收机构变更为例[J]. 经济研究, 2019(11): 87-101. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJYJ201911007.htm
[31]	任超然. 阶段性降低养老保险缴费率增加了企业投资吗?——来自A股上市公司的证据[J]. 保险研究, 2021(4): 106-120. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BXYJ202104007.htm
[32]	魏天保, 马磊. 社保缴费负担对我国企业生存风险的影响研究[J]. 财经研究, 2019(8): 112-126. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CJYJ201908009.htm
[33]	唐珏, 封进. 社保缴费负担、企业退出进入与地区经济增长——基于社保征收体制改革的证据[J]. 经济学动态, 2020(6): 47-60. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJXD202006004.htm
[34]	余泳泽, 张少辉, 杨晓章. 税收负担与"大众创业、万众创新"——来自跨国的经验证据[J]. 经济管理, 2017(6): 162-177. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJGU201706012.htm
[35]	冯海波, 周懿. 税收负担与中小企业创业活跃度——基于省级面板数据的分析[J]. 税务研究, 2019(2): 68-75. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SWXH201902015.htm
[36]	彭涛, 黄福广, 孙凌霞. 税收优惠能否激励风险投资: 基于准自然实验的证据[J]. 管理世界, 2021(1): 33-46, 17-19. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLSJ202101006.htm
[37]	魏升民, 李普亮, 梁若莲. 新发展格局下的中国最优宏观税负研究[J]. 广东财经大学学报, 2022(2): 42-55. http://xb.gdufe.edu.cn/article/id/b15c6c92-8705-4af1-a358-610ae937e34f
[38]	甘犁, 秦芳, 吴雨. 小微企业增值税起征点提高实施效果评估——来自中国小微企业调查(CMES)数据的分析[J]. 管理世界, 2019(11): 80-88, 231-232. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GLSJ201911009.htm