The integration of digital economy and real economy is significant for building a high-level, self-reliant national economic circulation system. By combining theories of product division of labor and industrial linkages, this study innovatively reveals the impact of this integration on domestic economic circulation, and its transmission mechanisms from the perspective of value chain resilience. The findings indicate that digital-real economy integration can optimize the structure of domestic value chain circulation and facilitate the coordinated interaction between regional and external value-added trade. Mechanism tests demonstrate that this integration enhances value chain resilience through four aspects: solidifying, supplementing, extending, and strengthening the chain, thereby alleviating bottlenecks in the domestic circulation. Further analysis shows that the digital-real economy integration more effectively promotes the growth of value-added supply shares in regions with high total factor productivity and high market integration levels. The high-quality development of regions and the construction of a unified market contribute to enhancing the dominant position of domestic circulation. Moreover, this integration helps connect domestic and international markets, facilitating the deep involvement of inland regions in the global value chain. These conclusions suggest that policies aimed at innovating and developing digital-real economy integration should focus on solidifying, supplementing, extending, and strengthening the value chain to enhance the endogenous dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation.
As a vital international transportation artery linking the Eurasian market, CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR Express) ushers in novel trade avenues for cities along its route, and propels the local economy towards diversified advancement. Leveraging the quasi-natural experiment of CR Express's establishment, this study harnesses panel data from 281 Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning from 2009 to 2022. A multi-period difference-in-difference model is employed to empirically scrutinize CR Express's impact on urban export resilience, and its underlying mechanisms. The results demonstrate that CR Express's launch significantly bolsters urban export resilience, with this positive effect exhibiting a gradual upward trajectory over time. This conclusion withstands a battery of robustness tests and endogeneity corrections. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that CR Express's boost to urban export resilience is more pronounced in western routes, large-and medium-sized cities, non-resource-based cities, and central hub cities. Further examination indicates that the number of countries served, destination types, and logistics capacity of CR Express routes positively modulate CR Express's promotional impact. Moreover, CR Express's policy effect has an optimal distance, with its influence primarily within a 200km radius. Mechanism testing shows that CR Express enhances urban export resilience chiefly through technological innovation and resource allocation effects. Extended research suggests that CR Express's independent effect, export resilience's standalone role, and their synergistic effect all significantly drive the high-quality development of urban foreign trade. It is imperative to reinforce CR Express's strategic underpinnings, spur technological innovation, optimize resource allocation, and take into account the optimal policy radiation distance. These measures can further unleash CR Express's trade-channel potential and promote the high-quality growth of China's foreign trade.
Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies for 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020, this study investigates how digital literacy and its underlying mechanisms influence the willingness of middle-aged and older adults to purchase endowment insurance. The findings show that higher digital literacy enhances cognitive abilities and digital skills, thereby increasing the likelihood of buying endowment insurance. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect is stronger among the middle-aged, those with higher educational attainment, urban residents, and households with greater income and savings. Further examination indicates that digital literacy shapes consumption expectations and improves financial investment strategies. These results provide valuable insights for improving livelihoods and fostering a healthy ageing society.
As an important strategic resource for enterprises, how the data asset disclosure mitigates stock price crash risk is crucial to maintaining financial security and promoting high-quality economic development. Based on a sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2023, and textual analysis of annual reports, the paper quantifies the level of data asset disclosure, and empirically examines the impact of data asset disclosure on the risk of stock price crash and its mechanism. The study finds that data asset disclosure significantly reduces the stock price crash risk, and this effect is realized through the dual path of attracting external market attention and driving internal digital change. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the risk-suppressing effect of data asset disclosure is more significant in enterprises with lower financial flexibility, less stable customers, and higher competitive pressure in the market. Further tests based on the patient capital perspective show that stable equity strengthens the risk-suppressing effect by enhancing the governance effect, while relational debt weakens the effect due to the constraint in debt repayment pressure. The findings provide theoretical support and policy references for promoting the full life cycle management of data asset, standardizing the information disclosure system, and preventing systemic risks in financial markets.
Based on Chinese urban panel data from 2000 to 2020, this study systematically analyzes the impact of labor force aging on economic growth and the role of digital technology therein. The findings indicate that labor force aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of validation tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative impact of labor force aging is more pronounced in regions with lower levels of economic development and in third-tier and below cities. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the development of digital technology can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of labor force aging through "technology substitution" and "compensatory empowerment." This research sheds light on the impact of labor force aging on economic growth, and the crucial role of digital technology, providing theoretical support and policy references for leveraging digital technology to address the challenges posed by the labor force aging.
Against the backdrop of the increasingly aging population in China, the surplus of endowment insurance funds is decreasing in provinces with surpluses, and the gap in provinces with deficits is expanding, which weakens the financial sustainability of the national pooling system for the adjustment of surpluses and deficits. The progressive delayed legal retirement age policy can extend the contribution years, increase the fund revenue, and delay the years for receiving pensions. It is worth exploring the impact of this policy on the financial sustainability of the national pooling system. The results of the actuarial balance model show that the progressive delayed legal retirement age policy can significantly improve the financial sustainability of the national pooling system, delay the time when the current deficits of endowment insurance funds begin in most provinces, and greatly reduce the cumulative financial subsidies; the policy effect has regional heterogeneity. Before 2035, with a more significant promoting effect on eastern provinces before 2035, and a stronger effect on western provinces thereafter; measures to improve the collection rate can further reduce the financial subsidies. Therefore, the progressive delayed legal retirement age policy improves the financial sustainability of the national pooling system by increasing sources of revenue and reducing expenditure, and optimizing the regional burden distribution. Supplemented by measures such as improving the collection rate, feasible solution can be provided to deal with the problem of the gap in endowment insurance.
The cultivation and development of new quality productive forces is the key path to achieve high-quality economic growth, and the tax governance capacity, as an important dimension of the modernization of the national governance system, needs to be explored in depth in terms of its mechanism of action on new quality productive forces. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2023, the entropy method is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of tax governance capacity and new quality productive forces, and the relationship between the two and their mechanisms are systematically examined through the two-way fixed effect model. It is found that the improvement of tax governance capacity can significantly promote the development of new quality productive forces, and this conclusion is valid in multiple robustness tests. The mechanism analysis shows that the digital transformation of the economy has a significant positive moderating effect in the process of tax governance capacity stimulating the new quality productive forces, while economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative moderating effect on the relationship between the two. The findings of the study provide empirical evidence for optimizing the tax governance system and reducing the impact of policy uncertainty, and have important policy implications for the construction of an institutional environment that is suitable for the development of new quality productive forces.
Developing and strengthening the rural collective economy is an inherent requirement for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and building a strong agricultural country, and it is also the only way to achieve common prosperity. Based on the sample data of 543 administrative villages in the two phases of the China Rural Revitalization Comprehensive Survey (CRRS) in 2020 and 2022, an empirical analysis was conducted on the impact of centralized transfer of farmland on the rural collective economy and its mechanism of action. The research finds that the centralized transfer of farmland has a significant positive impact on the development of rural collective economy. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion still holds. Mechanism analysis shows that the centralized transfer of farmland promotes the development and expansion of the rural collective economy through two channels: reducing the transaction cost of farmland transfer and increasing farmland transfer rent. The extended analysis shows that the centralized transfer of farmland does not harm the contracted rights and interests and income of farmers, but will increase the property income and wage income of farmers. Meanwhile, the centralized transfer of farmland can effectively increase the average yield per mu of crops, but has no obvious impact on the proportion of farmland rent in the net income of agriculture. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the centralized transfer of farmland has more significant promoting effect on the rural collective economic development of villages with a higher degree of isolation, a higher degree of political trust, and a higher degree of non-agricultural employment. To achieve the sustainable development of the rural collective economy, the intermediate service function of the village collective in the farmland transfer market should be actively exerted; the efficiency of farmland transfer and allocation should be further improved, and the marketization of farmland factors should be promoted.
数字普惠金融发展对产业结构升级具有重要积极意义。在对数字普惠金融发展与产业结构升级之间的关系进行理论分析的基础上, 基于283个地级以上城市2011—2015年的面板数据, 采用面板门槛模型等回归方法, 实证分析数字普惠金融发展及其各维度发展与产业结构升级之间的关系。结果表明: 数字普惠金融发展与产业结构升级之间存在非线性关系; 数字普惠金融发展存在瓶颈, 具有门槛效应; 数字普惠金融覆盖广度对产业结构升级具有长期且显著的促进作用, 数字普惠金融的使用深度和数字化程度与产业结构升级之间存在非线性关系; 不同区域的数字普惠金融发展对产业结构升级的非线性效应具有异质性, 对产业结构升级的正效应从东部到中西部逐级增强。因而政府部门和金融机构应加大建设数字金融基础设施的力度, 尤其要重视增加落后地区的普惠金融服务供给和提升其数字化程度, 同时, 也要防止数字普惠金融的过度发展为产业结构升级带来负的外部效应。
数字经济是经济发展提质增效的新动能和新引擎,对产业结构的转型升级具有重要驱动作用。在理论分析的基础上,从产业转型速度、产业结构高度化以及产业结构合理化三个维度对产业结构的转型升级进行分解,以区域创新创业指数表征城市创新创业水平,采用2011—2018年我国城市面板数据实证考察数字经济发展的产业结构转型升级效应及其作用机制。研究发现:(1)数字经济能显著提升产业转型速度、产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化,且基于互联网发展和数字普惠金融发展的分析结果趋同。(2)数字经济对产业结构转型升级的效应具有边际报酬递增的后发性优势,且东中西部区域异质性特征明显,其中中部地区是未来数字经济发展的重心。(3)从城市规模看,中等城市和大城市是数字经济驱动产业转型升级的重要着力点;从城市等级来看,二三线城市是产业转型的关键所在。(4)中介效应分析显示,创新创业水平是数字经济产业转型升级效应的重要传导路径,数字经济通过激发区域创新创业活力可加快产业转型速度、促进产业结构的高度化和合理化。以上结论对探索中国城市数字经济可持续发展、助推其与产业结构转型升级深度融合具有一定的参考意义。
构建多渠道机制下数字经济影响出口贸易的理论模型,利用2008—2017年中国省级面板数据,实证检验数字经济对制造业高质量走出去的空间溢出效应、非线性边际递增效应及影响机制。研究结果表明:数字经济显著促进了中国省级出口技术复杂度的提升,其产生的正向空间溢出效应能助推出口贸易的高质量发展;数字经济的空间溢出效应存在区域异质性,沿海省份较内陆省份享受了更多的数字红利;数字经济对出口技术复杂度的影响具有动态非线性驱动效应,出口贸易水平较高的地区享受的数字经济红利更大;通过人力资本与贸易成本两个渠道,数字经济能间接提升省级出口技术复杂度;数字经济作用于实体经济时普遍存在边际递增的网络效应。因而应加强数字经济基础设施建设,优化创新环境,让数字经济的发展推动我国制造业高质量走出去。
数字经济是促进新时代经济高质量增长的重要引擎。基于2011—2019年30个省份的面板数据,分别利用熵值法和DEA-Malmquist指数法测算我国省级数字经济发展综合指数与全要素生产率,实证探讨数字经济对经济高质量发展的影响效应。研究发现:数字经济能显著促进经济高质量发展,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍显著成立;机制分析表明,数字经济是通过提升区域创新水平、加快产业结构升级赋能于经济高质量发展;进一步分析表明,数字经济对相邻地区的经济高质量发展存在空间溢出效应,数字经济对经济高质量发展的促进效应因区域、生产率与人力资本的不同而存在异质性。因而应积极推进数字化基础设施建设,协调好各地区数字经济的均衡发展,实施数字化驱动发展战略,推进经济的高质量发展。
建设数字中国与实现绿水青山都是推动新时代经济高质量发展的重要战略举措。利用2005—2019年中国283个城市的面板数据,在环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的框架下,基于国家级大数据综合试验区这一准自然实验,运用多期DID和PSM-DID方法,评估以数据要素为核心的数字经济发展对城市空气质量的影响。研究结果表明:数字经济发展对城市空气质量的改善作用显著,且减排效应呈厚积薄发的特征;异质性研究表明,数字经济对秦岭—淮河一线以北的城市空气质量具有更强的影响效应,且在较大规模、高互联网发展水平以及低财政支出水平的城市其减排效应更加明显;机制检验表明,数字经济通过推动产业升级、促进技术创新以及优化资源配置改善了城市空气质量;进一步研究表明,数字经济的发展不仅推动了本地空气质量的改善,而且对降低相邻城市的空气污染也具有激励作用。因此,要进一步推动大数据试验区建设,提升该政策战略执行的包容性和灵活度,同时完善信息基础设施建设,以充分发挥数字经济对城市空气质量的改善作用。
“双循环”背景下,新型城镇化不仅是经济发展的新动力,也是实现共同富裕的有力支撑。基于扎实推进共同富裕的背景,从富裕水平、区域差距和城乡差距三方面构建共同富裕的指标体系,测算了281个城市的共同富裕水平,并采用SARAR模型分析新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响。研究发现:推进地区经济发展是实现共同富裕的根本途径;新型城镇化和共同富裕存在着空间相关性,且新型城镇化对共同富裕及其各维度产生显著的促进作用;共同富裕不仅受新型城镇化的影响,还受到城市初始经济发展的影响;比较而言,新型城镇化更能够提升贫困地区的共同富裕水平;新型城镇化对共同富裕产生直接作用的同时,还会通过农民收入和公共服务对共同富裕产生间接的促进作用。在推进新型城镇化过程中,可从提高富裕水平、缩小城乡收入差距和区域经济差距角度助推共同富裕。
员工持股计划作为企业内部的一项集体激励政策,在优化企业产权配置的同时亦对企业融资能力产生重要影响。基于2011—2018年A股上市公司样本,探究员工持股计划对企业融资约束的影响及作用机制,研究发现,员工持股计划通过降低外部融资成本来缓解企业的融资约束状况,这种缓解作用对东部地区的企业以及民营企业更为显著;员工持股计划通过增强员工身份认同、缓解员工层面代理问题等途径来提升企业内部控制质量,内部控制质量在员工持股计划与融资约束作用之间起到部分中介作用;由于员工之间的“监督效应”及员工持股计划的“公告效应”,员工持股计划在提升内部控制质量方面不存在“搭便车”行为,在缓解融资约束方面存在“1/N”效应。本研究结论为新时期推进员工持股深化改革、提升本土企业内部竞争力提供了参考。
以2008—2017年我国A股上市公司为研究样本, 实证检验了资产剥离对企业财务绩效的影响及其作用机制。研究发现, 资产剥离的实施能够显著影响企业的财务绩效, 其对企业财务绩效的作用方向取决于剥离前企业的业绩基础, 即对于经营不佳的企业而言, 资产剥离损害了企业财务绩效, 反之则显著提升了企业财务绩效。机制检验表明, 融资约束在资产剥离与企业财务绩效的负向关系中发挥了中介效应, 投资效率在资产剥离与企业财务绩效的正向关系中发挥了中介效应。
以环保经历嵌入为研究视角, 基于2008—2016年中国沪深A股重污染企业的经验证据, 实证检验高管环保经历嵌入对企业绿色转型的影响及其机制。研究发现:环保经历嵌入能有效促进企业绿色转型; 环保经历嵌入管理层和董事会均能显著地提高企业绿色转型水平, 但环保经历嵌入监事会的影响不显著。进一步研究发现, 新《环境保护法》实施后, 环保经历嵌入对企业绿色转型的促进作用更加显著, 并主要表现在民营企业与低融资约束企业中, 其作用路径一般是通过提高企业创新水平和降低企业调整成本来促进企业绿色转型。因此, 为推进企业绿色转型, 聘请和重视环保经历人才有助于降低绿色转型的风险和成本。
相较于美国式面向全体员工的退休储蓄型计划,中国式员工持股计划面向关键少数员工,员工大多自行出资,持股期更加灵活。基于2011—2017年A股上市公司数据,研究员工持股计划与企业创新产出数量与质量之间的关系;并进一步依据员工持股计划的契约特征将其分为治理型、激励型与绑定型三类,研究不同路径取向下的员工持股计划对企业创新的影响差异。结果表明:相对于治理型计划,激励型计划与绑定型计划均能提升企业的创新产出,且绑定型计划的作用更加显著;影响机制检验发现,激励型计划促进了员工在创新活动中的努力投入,绑定型计划降低了员工流失率并提升了高管的风险承担水平。本研究证实员工持股计划的实施符合利益协同观而非市值管理观,中国式员工持股计划具有创新促进效应。
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