2022 Vol. 37, No. 4

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Economic Theory and Exploration
Artificial Intelligence, Demographic Structure Transition and Changes in Labor Income Share
LU Ting-ting, ZHU Zhi-yong, LIU Chang-chang
2022, 37(4): 4-17.
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The previous researches focused on the linear relationship between artificial intelligence and labor income share, ignoring the potential nonlinear characteristics of this relationship. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2006 to 2017, this paper takes human capital and population ageing as threshold variables to build a panel threshold model, and adds the square term of artificial intelligence to investigate the nonlinear impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share. The results show that the influence of artificial intelligence on labor income share demonstrates U-shaped characteristic of restraining first and then increasing, and the inhibition is the main effect at this stage; the influence of artificial intelligence on labor income share has the characteristics of double threshold of human capital and single threshold of population aging, that is, with the improvement of human capital level, the negative impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share decreases, while with the deepening of population aging, the negative impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share increases, and the conclusion is still valid after the robustness test of replacing explained variables, changing sampling times and eliminating extreme values. Therefore, it is proposed to improve the level of human capital and promote the aging development of artificial intelligence technology, so as to alleviate the decline of labor income share brought by artificial intelligence, accelerate the healthy and sustainable development of artificial intelligence and solidly promote common prosperity.
The Effect of Industrial Intelligence on Manufacturing Participation in International Division of Labor: From the Perspective of Global Value Chain
ZHENG Li-lin, LIU Dong-sheng
2022, 37(4): 18-29.
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Based on the industrial robot data disclosed by the International Federation of Robotics from 2007 to 2019 and the data of global value chain published by the UIBE GVC database, this paper made in-depth investigation of the effect of industrial intelligence on the participation of a country's manufacturing industry in the international division of labor. The results show that industrial intelligence is conducive to improving the participation of GVC in the manufacturing industry of various countries, but its impact on the position of GVC shows an inverted U-shaped relationship of rising first and then falling; from the perspective of demographic structure and economic environment, industrial intelligence is more likely to promote the participation of GVC in abundant labor resources and economically underdeveloped countries; however, the inverted U-shaped impact on the position of GVC in different countries is common. In addition, the impact of industrial intelligence on GVC also has an obvious demonstration effect, which not only helps to narrow the difference in the participation of GVC in different industries in the same country and enhance the integrity of the industry, but also promotes international competition in the same industry in different countries to acertain extent.Therefore, it is the inevitable choice to further enhance the participation of GVC in China and achieve the leap in the status of GVC position by accelerating the development of industrial intelligence to further release technological dividends and better integrate into the world economy.
Urbanization and Rural Economy
On the Effective Linkage Mechanism and Effect Between Industrial Poverty Alleviation and Industrial Revitalization from the Perspective of Digital Economy
TANG Hong-tao, XIE Ting
2022, 37(4): 30-43.
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Digital economy continues to penetrate into rural industries, accelerates the integrated development of rural industries and digital economy, and promotes the sustainable development of rural industries, so as to consolidate and expand the effective linkage between industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization. Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2018, a coupling collaborative model of industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization was constructed to explore the impact of digital economy on the connection between industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization. The results show that the coupling degree of industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization in China is between the low and the medium, and most provincial industrial revitalization lags behind industrial poverty alleviation; digital economy can consolidate and expand the effective link between industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization, and the promotion effect of industrial digitalization is stronger than that of digital industrialization. Further research shows that human capital plays a mediating role in the process of promoting cohesion of industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization. Therefore, in order to promote the effective connection between industrial poverty alleviation and industrial revitalization, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of rural information infrastructure, promote the implementation of digital rural strategy, and realize the sustainable development of rural industry with digital economy as the starting point.
The Connotation, Dilemma and Institutional Innovation in Realizing Common Prosperity in Rural Areas: From the Perspective of Rural Governance
LEI Qiong
2022, 37(4): 44-55.
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Common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism. The most arduous task of advancing common prosperity is in rural areas. The connotation of realizing common prosperity in rural areas is reflected in stimulating farmers' enthusiasm, improving farmers' ability to get rich, and providing farmers with fair development conditions. It is found that a well-functioning rural governance mechanism can effectively improve the efficiency of resource allocation, enhance the vitality of rural development, and form a fair and orderly rural development environment. Therefore, to realize the common prosperity of rural areas, it is urgent to optimize and innovate the rural governance system. In stimulating the overall vitality of rural development, it is proposed to strengthen the construction of rural grass-roots organizations and give full play to the guidance function of the Party construction. In terms of improving farmers' ability to get rich, we should standardize the rural governance system, fully implement rural autonomy, plant cultural capital, and give full play to the leading role of rich elites. In terms of ensuring equity, we should actively expand the sources of rural governance funds, adopt advanced technology to improve public service capacity and promote the equalization of basic public services.
Finance and Capital Markets
Did Social Security Fee Cuts Boost Employment?Empirical Evidence from Online Recruitment Data
ZHAO Hai-zhu, CAI Wei-xing, LUO Lian-hua
2022, 37(4): 56-70.
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A number of policies for social insurance fee cuts have been implemented to lower corporate costs and to stimulate vitality ever since the structural reforms on the mitigation side started. "Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Rate"(Referred to as Comprehensive Plan) in 2019 promoted the maximum cuts of corporate social insurance fee rate. The paper used data of daily online recruitment in 2019 and constructed a DID model to investigate the employment effects of the Comprehensive Plan by taking Zhejiang province as the control group and Jiangsu province as the treatment group, for the two provinces are economically and socially similar and Jiangsu's employer old-age insurance rate needs to be lowered as a result of the Comprehensive Plan whereas Zhejiang does not need to. It is found that the Comprehensive Plan promoted the expansion of recruitment agencies and have positive employment effects; the positive employment effects are achieved by promoting social entrepreneurship activities. The results of heterogeneity analysis prove that the Comprehensive Plan has a more significant role in promoting recruitment of no-work-experience-requirements, lower education, lower wages, and irregular payment industry, and in promoting jobs in cities with low pension insurance participation rates, weaker financial strength, and serious aging populations. The findings of this research reflect fee cuts help to improve the income distribution pattern between groups and regions, and are beneficial to promote the realization of common wealth. This study provides empirical evidence and enlightenment for lowering social insurance fee rate to stimulate enterprise vitality and stabilize social employment.
The Impact of Home-returning Start-up Enterprises' Access to Credit on the Employment Expansion in Rural Areas: Based on the Survey Data of Home-returning Start-up Enterprises in China
WANG Yi, ZHAO Feng, LIU Peng
2022, 37(4): 71-85.
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Based on the survey data of 2139 national home-returning start-up enterprises in 2019, this paper studies the impact of home-returning start-up enterprise' access to bank credit and government support credit on the expansion of employment in rural areas under China's rural revitalization strategy. It is found that the number of employees employed by enterprises can be significantly expanded by home-returning start-up enterprises to obtain credit and government support credit support, while the employment expansion effect of government support credit on local poor households is more obvious. Mechanism analysis shows that employee training plays an intermediary role between the two types of credit and the employment expansion effect of home-returning start-up enterprises; the two types of credit will lead to the employment expansion capacity of enterprises by improving the training of employees; the entrepreneurial spirit of entrepreneurs plays a "regulatory effect" in the intermediary effect of employee training, that is, the stronger the entrepreneurial spirit, the stronger the awareness of employee training, and the stronger the employability of entrepreneurial enterprises. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the survival type and development type of home-returning start-up enterprises can significantly expand the employment of local migrant workers by obtaining bank credit support, and the employment expansion effect of development type of home-returning start-up enterprises receiving government support is more obvious; the home-returning start-up enterprises in China's eastern region can significantly expand the employment of local migrant workers with bank credit support, and the employment expansion effect of the home-returning start-up enterprises in the China's central region with government support and credit support is more obvious. Therefore, it is suggested that local governments should give full play to the employment expansion effect of different credit policies, and implement differentiated, accurate and collaborative credit policies in combination with the characteristics of home-returning start-up enterprises, so as to improve the employment expansion capacity and promote common prosperity in rural areas.
Fiscal and Public Administration
Has Local Economic Growth Target Affect Urban-rural Income Gap? Empirical Evidence from Provincial Government Work Report
ZHANG Yun-kuang, HU Shan-cheng, YANG Tong-bin
2022, 37(4): 86-99.
[Abstract](614) [FullText HTML] (283) [PDF 1003KB](33)
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The urban-biased policy caused by the "growth-oriented incentives" of local governments is considered to be the main cause of the widening urban-rural income gap. Based on the perspective of double constraints of economic growth target and financial resources, this paper made a theoretical analysis on the impact and its mechanism of economic growth target on urban-rural income gap. Using the economic growth target data collected from the provincial government work report from 2003 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of local government economic growth target on urban-rural income gap based on system GMM method.The results show that when the economic growth target is set with "above" and other hard constraints, the urban-rural income gap will be widened and the widening effect is more obvious in the China's western regions; when the economic growth target is set by soft constraints such as "about", the impact on the urban-rural income gap is not significant, but the economic growth exceeding the target realized in the form of soft constraints will narrow the urban-rural income gap.Mechanism analysis shows that financial resource constraints will affect the economic behavior of the government, and aggravate the impact of target constraints on urban-rural income gap, while fiscal decentralization can effectively alleviate the impact of hard constraints on urban-rural income gap.Therefore, the government should thoroughly implement the new development philosophy, improve the performance evaluation of local governments, straighten financial and administrative relationships between the central government and local governments, and fully mobilize the principal role of local governments in achieving balanced development between urban and rural areas.
Has the Reform of Public Hospitals Improved the Capacity of Medical and Health Services? Analysis of the Promotion Effect Based on Financial Input
WANG Chao-cai, ZHA Zi-yan
2022, 37(4): 100-111.
[Abstract](460) [FullText HTML] (296) [PDF 1174KB](26)
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Based on the progressive difference-in-differences method and the thirteen-year panel data collected from 289 prefecture-level cities since 2006, this paper systematically examines the promoting effect of the comprehensive reform on the urban public medical and health services as well as the specific mechanisms behind it. The findings of this study indicate that the pilot comprehensive reform of urban public hospitals has significantly promoted the number of beds and doctors in urban hospitals, as well as the urban medical and health services, which has alleviated the "difficulty in seeing a doctor and hospitalization"; the effect of the pilot reform in increasing the number of beds in urban hospitals has obvious time lag, but the effect of increasing the number of doctors has a poor persistence. The heterogeneity study reveals that the effect of increasing the number of hospital beds and the number of doctors in medium-sized cities is significant; the effect of increasing the number of hospital beds in cities with high fiscal expenditure levels is obvious, and the effect of increasing the number of doctors in cities with high human capital is obvious. Mechanism verification shows that the pilot reform has achieved the improvement of medical and health service capabilities by strengthening the per capita security level of medical and health expenditures and strengthening the government's responsibilities for financial input. This research provides useful policy enlightenment for further deepening the reform of urban public hospitals and enhancing the overall medical and health service capacity.

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