The Dual-Carbon Governance Effects of the Accountability Audit of Natural Resource Assets

The accountability audit of natural resources (AANR) is a distinct institutional innovation in China that systematically constrains local environmental governance. By integrating ecological responsibility into political incentives, it aims to shift the economic growth away from a GDP-oriented paradigm. Exploiting the staggered pilot rollout of the policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study matches city-level carbon emissions and carbon sink data for 285 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020 with audit pilot information. This study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model (DID) and a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to evaluate its governance effects on the "dual-carbon" targets. The results show that AANR significantly reduces carbon emission intensity and enhances carbon sink capacity, indicating clear direct governance effects. Spatial impacts exhibit dimensional heterogeneity. Geographically proximate regions display diffusion effects driven by technological spillovers, while areas within the same administrative jurisdiction show siphoning effects characterized by pollution transfer. Further analysis finds that when neighboring regions are simultaneously audited, positive spillovers are weakened and may even reverse within provinces, suggesting strategic interactions among local governments under environmental regulation. This study also documents an administrative clustering pattern in carbon emissions, indicating that the dual-carbon transition is largely driven by government intervention. This study provides key evidence on the effectiveness of government-led environmental governance in China. It confirms the institutional value of AANR and offers policy implications for improving regional coordination and advancing integrated governance.