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2025 Vol. 40, No. 3

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Economic Theory and Exploration
How Does Digital-Real Economy Integration Empower Domestic Value Chain Circulation
HUO Chunhui, BIAN Shengkai, LV Mengxiao
2025, 40(3): 4-18.
[Abstract](30) [FullText HTML] (15) [PDF 1102KB](9)
Abstract:
The integration of digital economy and real economy is significant for building a high-level, self-reliant national economic circulation system. By combining theories of product division of labor and industrial linkages, this study innovatively reveals the impact of this integration on domestic economic circulation, and its transmission mechanisms from the perspective of value chain resilience. The findings indicate that digital-real economy integration can optimize the structure of domestic value chain circulation and facilitate the coordinated interaction between regional and external value-added trade. Mechanism tests demonstrate that this integration enhances value chain resilience through four aspects: solidifying, supplementing, extending, and strengthening the chain, thereby alleviating bottlenecks in the domestic circulation. Further analysis shows that the digital-real economy integration more effectively promotes the growth of value-added supply shares in regions with high total factor productivity and high market integration levels. The high-quality development of regions and the construction of a unified market contribute to enhancing the dominant position of domestic circulation. Moreover, this integration helps connect domestic and international markets, facilitating the deep involvement of inland regions in the global value chain. These conclusions suggest that policies aimed at innovating and developing digital-real economy integration should focus on solidifying, supplementing, extending, and strengthening the value chain to enhance the endogenous dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation.
The Impact of CHINA RAILWAY Express on Urban Export Resilience
CHEN Jianguo, LI Wei
2025, 40(3): 19-39.
[Abstract](66) [FullText HTML] (30) [PDF 1659KB](3)
Abstract:
As a vital international transportation artery linking the Eurasian market, CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR Express) ushers in novel trade avenues for cities along its route, and propels the local economy towards diversified advancement. Leveraging the quasi-natural experiment of CR Express's establishment, this study harnesses panel data from 281 Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning from 2009 to 2022. A multi-period difference-in-difference model is employed to empirically scrutinize CR Express's impact on urban export resilience, and its underlying mechanisms. The results demonstrate that CR Express's launch significantly bolsters urban export resilience, with this positive effect exhibiting a gradual upward trajectory over time. This conclusion withstands a battery of robustness tests and endogeneity corrections. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that CR Express's boost to urban export resilience is more pronounced in western routes, large-and medium-sized cities, non-resource-based cities, and central hub cities. Further examination indicates that the number of countries served, destination types, and logistics capacity of CR Express routes positively modulate CR Express's promotional impact. Moreover, CR Express's policy effect has an optimal distance, with its influence primarily within a 200km radius. Mechanism testing shows that CR Express enhances urban export resilience chiefly through technological innovation and resource allocation effects. Extended research suggests that CR Express's independent effect, export resilience's standalone role, and their synergistic effect all significantly drive the high-quality development of urban foreign trade. It is imperative to reinforce CR Express's strategic underpinnings, spur technological innovation, optimize resource allocation, and take into account the optimal policy radiation distance. These measures can further unleash CR Express's trade-channel potential and promote the high-quality growth of China's foreign trade.
Financial Development and Supervision
Digital Literacy and Willingness to Purchase Endowment Insurance among Middle-Aged and Elderly Adults
ZOU Xinyue, ZHANG Jinhong, YU Lina
2025, 40(3): 40-53.
[Abstract](21) [FullText HTML] (20) [PDF 1011KB](2)
Abstract:
Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies for 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020, this study investigates how digital literacy and its underlying mechanisms influence the willingness of middle-aged and older adults to purchase endowment insurance. The findings show that higher digital literacy enhances cognitive abilities and digital skills, thereby increasing the likelihood of buying endowment insurance. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect is stronger among the middle-aged, those with higher educational attainment, urban residents, and households with greater income and savings. Further examination indicates that digital literacy shapes consumption expectations and improves financial investment strategies. These results provide valuable insights for improving livelihoods and fostering a healthy ageing society.
How Does Data Asset Disclosure Affect Stock Price Crash Risk
ZHANG Shushan, LIU Zhaoning, YAO Xinyan
2025, 40(3): 54-69.
[Abstract](70) [FullText HTML] (24) [PDF 1162KB](1)
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As an important strategic resource for enterprises, how the data asset disclosure mitigates stock price crash risk is crucial to maintaining financial security and promoting high-quality economic development. Based on a sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2023, and textual analysis of annual reports, the paper quantifies the level of data asset disclosure, and empirically examines the impact of data asset disclosure on the risk of stock price crash and its mechanism. The study finds that data asset disclosure significantly reduces the stock price crash risk, and this effect is realized through the dual path of attracting external market attention and driving internal digital change. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the risk-suppressing effect of data asset disclosure is more significant in enterprises with lower financial flexibility, less stable customers, and higher competitive pressure in the market. Further tests based on the patient capital perspective show that stable equity strengthens the risk-suppressing effect by enhancing the governance effect, while relational debt weakens the effect due to the constraint in debt repayment pressure. The findings provide theoretical support and policy references for promoting the full life cycle management of data asset, standardizing the information disclosure system, and preventing systemic risks in financial markets.
Aging Population and Silver Economy
The Impact of Labor Force Aging on Economic Growth
TONG Yufen, LIU Zhili
2025, 40(3): 70-81.
[Abstract](34) [FullText HTML] (14) [PDF 1001KB](0)
Abstract:
Based on Chinese urban panel data from 2000 to 2020, this study systematically analyzes the impact of labor force aging on economic growth and the role of digital technology therein. The findings indicate that labor force aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of validation tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative impact of labor force aging is more pronounced in regions with lower levels of economic development and in third-tier and below cities. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the development of digital technology can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of labor force aging through "technology substitution" and "compensatory empowerment." This research sheds light on the impact of labor force aging on economic growth, and the crucial role of digital technology, providing theoretical support and policy references for leveraging digital technology to address the challenges posed by the labor force aging.
Can the Progressive Retirement Policy Enhance the Financial Sustainability of the National Pooling System for Endowment Insurance
ZENG Yi, ZHANG Haowei
2025, 40(3): 82-101.
[Abstract](76) [FullText HTML] (34) [PDF 1112KB](3)
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Against the backdrop of the increasingly aging population in China, the surplus of endowment insurance funds is decreasing in provinces with surpluses, and the gap in provinces with deficits is expanding, which weakens the financial sustainability of the national pooling system for the adjustment of surpluses and deficits. The progressive delayed legal retirement age policy can extend the contribution years, increase the fund revenue, and delay the years for receiving pensions. It is worth exploring the impact of this policy on the financial sustainability of the national pooling system. The results of the actuarial balance model show that the progressive delayed legal retirement age policy can significantly improve the financial sustainability of the national pooling system, delay the time when the current deficits of endowment insurance funds begin in most provinces, and greatly reduce the cumulative financial subsidies; the policy effect has regional heterogeneity. Before 2035, with a more significant promoting effect on eastern provinces before 2035, and a stronger effect on western provinces thereafter; measures to improve the collection rate can further reduce the financial subsidies. Therefore, the progressive delayed legal retirement age policy improves the financial sustainability of the national pooling system by increasing sources of revenue and reducing expenditure, and optimizing the regional burden distribution. Supplemented by measures such as improving the collection rate, feasible solution can be provided to deal with the problem of the gap in endowment insurance.
Fiscal and Public Administration
A Study on the Impact of Tax Governance Capacity on New Quality Productive Forces
YU Haifeng, CHEN Miao, LIU Yang
2025, 40(3): 102-114.
[Abstract](56) [FullText HTML] (32) [PDF 1068KB](3)
Abstract:
The cultivation and development of new quality productive forces is the key path to achieve high-quality economic growth, and the tax governance capacity, as an important dimension of the modernization of the national governance system, needs to be explored in depth in terms of its mechanism of action on new quality productive forces. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2023, the entropy method is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of tax governance capacity and new quality productive forces, and the relationship between the two and their mechanisms are systematically examined through the two-way fixed effect model. It is found that the improvement of tax governance capacity can significantly promote the development of new quality productive forces, and this conclusion is valid in multiple robustness tests. The mechanism analysis shows that the digital transformation of the economy has a significant positive moderating effect in the process of tax governance capacity stimulating the new quality productive forces, while economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative moderating effect on the relationship between the two. The findings of the study provide empirical evidence for optimizing the tax governance system and reducing the impact of policy uncertainty, and have important policy implications for the construction of an institutional environment that is suitable for the development of new quality productive forces.
How Does the Concentrated Transfer of Farmland Affect the Development of Rural Collective Economy
LUO Mingzhong, RUAN Ruohui
2025, 40(3): 115-128.
[Abstract](39) [FullText HTML] (12) [PDF 1010KB](1)
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Developing and strengthening the rural collective economy is an inherent requirement for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and building a strong agricultural country, and it is also the only way to achieve common prosperity. Based on the sample data of 543 administrative villages in the two phases of the China Rural Revitalization Comprehensive Survey (CRRS) in 2020 and 2022, an empirical analysis was conducted on the impact of centralized transfer of farmland on the rural collective economy and its mechanism of action. The research finds that the centralized transfer of farmland has a significant positive impact on the development of rural collective economy. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion still holds. Mechanism analysis shows that the centralized transfer of farmland promotes the development and expansion of the rural collective economy through two channels: reducing the transaction cost of farmland transfer and increasing farmland transfer rent. The extended analysis shows that the centralized transfer of farmland does not harm the contracted rights and interests and income of farmers, but will increase the property income and wage income of farmers. Meanwhile, the centralized transfer of farmland can effectively increase the average yield per mu of crops, but has no obvious impact on the proportion of farmland rent in the net income of agriculture. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the centralized transfer of farmland has more significant promoting effect on the rural collective economic development of villages with a higher degree of isolation, a higher degree of political trust, and a higher degree of non-agricultural employment. To achieve the sustainable development of the rural collective economy, the intermediate service function of the village collective in the farmland transfer market should be actively exerted; the efficiency of farmland transfer and allocation should be further improved, and the marketization of farmland factors should be promoted.

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