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2026 Vol. 41, No. 2

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Intelligent Finance
How Industrial Robot Applications Resolve "Involutionary" Competition: From a Perspective of the Manufacturing Industry's Capacity Governance
WANG Xiaodan, KE Yangjian
2026, 41(2): 4-15.
[Abstract](755) [FullText HTML] (790) [PDF 1178KB](33)
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Governing overcapacity is one of the key tasks of China's manufacturing industry's "anti-involution". This article uses China's A-share manufacturing listed companies from 2007 to 2023 as samples to examine the impact of industrial robot applications on overcapacity and their mechanism of action. It is found that the application of industrial robots has significantly improved enterprise production capacity utilization, thus overcapacity has been alleviated effectively. This is achieved by enhancing flexible production and optimizing factor allocation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the capacity governance effect of robot application is more significant in downstream industries, enterprises in the growth period, and non-strategic emerging industries. Further analysis reveals that the application of industrial robots exhibits a "double threshold" characteristic regarding overcapacity: when applied at a medium-low level, the robot application has a significant governance effect, but excessive application exacerbates supply surplus. Additionally, robot applications in upstream industries will be transmitted through the supply chain, intensifying the overcapacity in downstream enterprises. This paper provides a micro evidence for understanding how technology can break down "involutionary" competition, and also offers some policy insights for categorized capacity governance and prevention of "vertical involution" in supply chains.
The Driving Logic of Large Artificial Intelligence Models for Inclusive Finance in the Context of Value Alignment and Its Legal Governance Pathways
LIU Yinan
2026, 41(2): 16-30.
[Abstract](712) [FullText HTML] (682) [PDF 1314KB](22)
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Driven by digital and intelligent technologies, the balanced development and thorough penetration of financial services are of significant importance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period for accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse and ensuring that the achievements of modernization benefit all people more extensively and fairly. The application of large AI models in inclusive finance scenarios substantially enhances resource accessibility for financially underserved groups, yet simultaneously amplifies the impact of ethical risks on the development and governance of inclusive finance. Considering both technical mechanisms and practical conditions, the heterogeneity between the operational logic of large AI models and that of inclusive finance, along with the complexity of application scenarios, leads to the emergence, spillover, and diffusion of ethical risks throughout processes such as data learning, algorithm operation, and knowledge generation. This creates tensions with value goals such as equity, security, stability, and sustainability. Consequently, it is essential to adopt a value alignment approach to prevent and control ethical risks in intelligent systems. It is necessary to fully elaborate the value alignment logic of large AI models across principles, intentions, behaviors, and incentives, guiding their operational rules, technical pathways, functional realization, and governance systems to align with the high-quality development requirements of inclusive finance. In terms of legal pathways, emphasis should be placed on effectively integrating the core tenets of inclusive finance into the formulation of norms governing large AI models, establishing a full-cycle risk control mechanism for identifying, intervening in mitigating ethical risks, smoothing ethical risks, and fostering a multi-stakeholder collaborative governance mechanism for value alignment through effective incentive compatibility of rights and responsibilities.
Economic Theory and Exploration
Inherent Laws and Evolutionary Logic of the Qualitative Transition of Productivity: A Re-examination of the Development Strategies for New Quality Productive Forces
ZENG Xianju, YAN Jiangbing, SHI Qing
2026, 41(2): 31-42.
[Abstract](721) [FullText HTML] (794) [PDF 1234KB](20)
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Productivity as a complex open system, its qualitative state transition is the fundamental driving force for the evolution of social formations. Based on complex systems theory and integrating state transition logic, this paper constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework of "stage-dynamics-structure". By reviewing the historical process of successive industrial revolutions, it reveals the complex system evolution logic of "steady-state equilibrium → disequilibrium → new steady-state equilibrium" that qualitative state transitions of productivity follow, as well as the compound law of motion manifested as "stage evolution-driving force innovation-structure optimization". Based on the "stage-dynamics-structure" framework of productivity qualitative state transition, this study systematically analyzes the development characteristics of China's new quality productive forces, and proposes development suggestions featuring "dynamic adjustment according to stages, classified guidance according to driving forces, and targeted policy implementation according to structures". The analytical framework constructed in this paper enriches the systematic understanding of productivity development theory, and provides historical reference and practical guidance for the development of new quality productive forces in China.
Between "Stabilizing Growth" and "Safeguarding Livelihoods": How Fiscal Pressure Alters Local Financial Expenditure
ZHAO Weimin, XIE Qiang
2026, 41(2): 43-59.
[Abstract](794) [FullText HTML] (703) [PDF 1518KB](21)
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With the dual objectives of stabilizing growth and safeguarding livelihoods, how local governments adjust fiscal expenditure structure under tightening budget constraints has become a central issue in China's fiscal governance. Incorporating regional heterogeneity, this study examines the adjustment mechanisms of local expenditure strategies under different types of fiscal pressure. Both theoretical derivations and empirical evidence show that, under fiscal pressure induced by changes in the economic environment, local governments tend to reduce productive expenditure, and the reduction is larger in regions with lower capital stock and lower pre-existing productive expenditure. The direction of changes in transfer expenditure is uncertain and may shift from increase to decrease as the capital stock rises. Under the fiscal pressure induced by policy and institutional changes, productive expenditure also contracts, and the contraction is greater in regions with larger capital stock and greater pre-existing productive expenditure. Meanwhile, cuts in transfer expenditure become more pronounced as the capital stock and resource endowments increase. Numerical simulations reproduce these heterogeneous adjustment paths within the theoretical framework, thereby strengthening the mechanism-based credibility of the empirical findings. As the fiscal pressure on local governments is likely to persist in the foreseeable future, this study provides an analytical framework for understanding local expenditure behavior under pressure-driven fiscal incentives and constraints.
Financial Development and Supervision
Overtime Work and "the Mystery of Limited Participation" in the Household Risky Financial Market
MA Guorui, GUO Borui, CHANG Jinxiong
2026, 41(2): 60-74.
[Abstract](735) [FullText HTML] (672) [PDF 1170KB](19)
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The "mystery of limited participation" in the household risky financial market attracts much attention, and overtime work offers a new perspective to explain this phenomenon. Using panel data from the CHFS from 2011 to 2019, this study examines the impact of overtime work on household decision-making regarding participation in risky financial market. The findings reveal that for every additional 10 hours of overtime work per month, the probability of household participation in risky financial market decreases by an average of 2.1%, and the proportion of household investment in risky financial assets decreases by an average of 0.5%. This effect is more significant in households with young heads, those lacking housing, and those located in regions with lower financial development levels. Overtime work primarily reduces household participation in risky financial market and the proportion of household investment in risky financial assets by the mechanisms of risk aversion, health depletion, and limited attention. This paper reveals the new key factors of "the mystery of limited participation" in the household risky financial market in China, and provides policy references for optimizing the labor hours system and enhancing household financial participation.
The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Residents' Income: Evidence from the Moderating Role of New-Quality Laborers
WANG Guosong, CAO Lei, XU Lingli
2026, 41(2): 75-86.
[Abstract](855) [FullText HTML] (809) [PDF 1146KB](20)
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As an important outcome of financial innovation in the digital era, digital inclusive finance can improve the effectiveness of financial services and create new opportunities for residents' income growth. Based on data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study empirically examines the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents' income and investigates the moderating role played by new-quality laborers in this relationship. The results show that digital inclusive finance significantly promotes residents' income growth, while new-quality laborers exert a significant positive moderating effect in this process. These findings remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity and conducting a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that digital inclusive finance increases residents' income by expanding their access to financial information, improving their level of financial understanding, and strengthening their participation in financial activities. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the income effect of digital inclusive finance differs significantly across city clusters, across regions with different levels of the new-quality laborer index, and across income groups. In addition, digital inclusive finance significantly reduces residents' income inequality, whereas new-quality laborers exert a negative moderating effect in this process. These findings provide useful policy implications for improving the service system of digital inclusive finance, accelerating the cultivation of new-quality laborers, and promoting more coordinated regional development.
Management and Corporate Performance
How Contexts Drive Substitution: A Case Study on Alternative Innovation of Key Core Technologies in Private Enterprises
HU Haibo, ZHAO Xinyao, CHENG Le
2026, 41(2): 87-101.
[Abstract](949) [FullText HTML] (806) [PDF 6410KB](18)
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Clarifying the mechanism of context-driven alternative innovation for private enterprises' key core technologies is of great significance for breaking through the "chokepoint" dilemma of key core technologies and realizing self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology. This study takes Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. as the research object to systematically explore how private enterprises connect technology and market driven by context to achieve domestic substitution. The research findings are as follows: Under the user context drive, private enterprises focus on users' high-pain-point needs, rely on external resources to complete leapfrog alternative innovation, and form an "external-drive-led adaptive coupling"; under the industrial context drive, private enterprises conduct forward-looking layout based on technological advantages, realize coherent alternative innovation through cross-context technology reuse and the construction of an independent innovation chain, and form an "internal-drive-led symbiotic coupling"; under the regional context drive, private enterprises anchor strategic intentions, rely on the regional ecological resource network and real-time feedback of market information, realize circular alternative innovation featured with dynamic mutual feeding between technological iteration and market expansion, and deepen the "internal-drive-led symbiotic coupling mechanism". This study reveals the dynamic matching framework of "context type—alternative innovation type—driving method", and the evolution law of the technology-market coupling mechanism. It fills the gap in the existing research that insufficient attention is paid to the context connection mechanism in the whole process of alternative innovation, and provides a new perspective for the theoretical research and management practice of domestic substitution of key core technologies.
Concentrated Supply Chain Configuration and Corporate Investment Efficiency
WEN Jun, WANG Na
2026, 41(2): 102-117.
[Abstract](743) [FullText HTML] (760) [PDF 1273KB](20)
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High investment efficiency is a core dimension of high-quality corporate development. As key players embedded in supply chain networks, corporate investment behaviors are profoundly influenced by concentrated supply chain configuration. Using a sample of A-share listed enterprises in China from 2007 to 2023, this study empirically investigates the impact of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency and its underlying mechanisms. The findings show that concentrated supply chain configuration exerts a significant inhibitory effect on corporate investment efficiency, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness checks. Mechanism tests reveal that the impact operates primarily through three channels: increasing operational risk, crowding out working capital, and deteriorating the information environment. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that both supplier concentration and customer concentration inhibit corporate investment efficiency, with the latter exerting a slightly stronger negative impact than the former. Furthermore, the negative effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on investment efficiency is more pronounced for over-investing enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, small-scale enterprises, and enterprises in the growth and decline stages. Further analysis finds that three factors—the development level of regional factor markets, enterprise external market dominance, and enterprise internal control quality can effectively mitigate the negative impact of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. This study extends the research on the determinants of corporate investment efficiency from the perspective of supply chain structure, providing new theoretical explanations and empirical evidence for understanding the investment behavior of Chinese enterprises.
Three Rural Issues
How Can Computing Power Infrastructure Development Enhance Entrepreneurial Vitality in New Agricultural Business Models
JIN Huali, YANG Qian
2026, 41(2): 118-135.
[Abstract](748) [FullText HTML] (1302) [PDF 1375KB](21)
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As a core element of new quality productive forces in agriculture in the digital era, computing power has become a strategic infrastructure for promoting the digital transformation of traditional agriculture. Based on panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2023, and taking the "National Supercomputing Center Construction" as a quasi-natural experiment, this study empirically evaluates the impact and mechanism of computing power infrastructure construction on the entrepreneurial activity of new agricultural business forms using a multi-period difference-in-differences model. The research finds that the construction of national supercomputing centers significantly promoted the increase in entrepreneurial activity of new agricultural business forms in pilot areas compared to non-pilot areas, and the long-term effect after policy implementation shows a continuously increasing trend. Computing power infrastructure development enhances the entrepreneurial activity of new agricultural business forms through pathways such as promoting the application of agricultural big data, improving agricultural labor productivity, alleviating agricultural resource misallocation, and promoting agricultural technological innovation. Furthermore, the promoting effect on entrepreneurial activity of new agricultural business forms is more significant in regions with a superior government business environment, mature development of new agricultural business entities, a higher Digital Inclusive Finance Index, and strong government digital attention. The research conclusions provide empirical evidence for the government to scientifically allocate computing power resources and construct entrepreneurial support systems for new agricultural business forms according to local conditions.
Review on Practical Forms of Legal Person in New-type Rural Collective Economic Organizations
MEI Weijia
2026, 41(2): 136-144.
[Abstract](767) [FullText HTML] (743) [PDF 1120KB](18)
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Innovating the practical models for new-type rural collective economic organizations is not only an inherent requirement for promoting their development and growth, but also an essential pathway to deepening the reform of the rural collective property rights system. The Rural Collective Economic Organization Law requires rural collective economic organizations to uniformly include the designation "Collective Economic Organization" in their names. However, this requirement does not adequately account for the diversity of legal entity forms in local practice, which mainly include cooperative corporations, corporate entities, and joint-stock cooperative corporations. As an "intermediate legal person", the new-type rural collective economic organizations possess distinctive attributes, including continuity of existence, stringent establishment requirements, and restrictions on membership changes. Guided by the principle of proportionality, the joint-stock cooperative corporations not only aligns with the interdependent coexistence of the collective and the individual in new-type rural collective economies, but also balances the needs for both economic development and the stability of the collective public ownership system. Therefore, it should be recognized as the primary form for these organizations, while a certain degree of autonomy should be granted to them.

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