Influence of Different Emission Reduction Policies on Carbon Emission Tax: Analysis Based on Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutral Targets

"30.60" carbon dioxide emission target has increasingly become a hard constraint on China's economic development. By setting four policy scenarios that comprise of the developed economies levying domestic carbon tax, the developed economies levying domestic carbon tax and carbon tariffs of imported products from China, the developed economies and China levying the same carbon tax and the differentiated carbon tax policy implemented in China and the developed economies, the paper analyzes the impact of the macro economy, the welfare of the residents and carbon emissions under four policy scenarios using GTAP-E model, then discusses whether the action that China will take the initiative to reduce dioxide emissions on the cost fairness principle can be a solution to the threat of carbon taxes and carbon tariffs threat in the developed economies. The results show that carbon tariffs are limited in reducing carbon emissions and preventing carbon leakage and easy to cause a "double loss" situation, which is not an effective emission reduction policy; the developed economies and China levying the same carbon tax result in a substantial decline in China's real GDP and social welfare, which cannot effectively cope with the threat of carbon taxes and carbon tariffs threat in the developed economies; the differentiated carbon tax policy implemented in China and the developed economies which cause the global carbon emissions falling sharply and China's real GDP and social welfare declining gently, can be the choice of tackling carbon taxes and carbon tariffs threat.