The Quality Effect and Its Influence Mechanism of the Uncertainty of Transfer Payment on Economic Development

ZHAN Xin-yu; LIU Yang

Volume 35 Issue 5

Apr. 2021

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ZHAN Xin-yu, LIU Yang. The Quality Effect and Its Influence Mechanism of the Uncertainty of Transfer Payment on Economic Development[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2020, 35(5): 4-21.

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ZHAN Xin-yu, LIU Yang. The Quality Effect and Its Influence Mechanism of the Uncertainty of Transfer Payment on Economic Development[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2020, 35(5): 4-21.

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The Quality Effect and Its Influence Mechanism of the Uncertainty of Transfer Payment on Economic Development

School of Finance and Taxation, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China

Received Date: 2020-06-30
Available Online: 2021-04-29
Publish Date: 2020-10-28

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the data from prefecture-level cities of 24 provinces in China, this paper constructs a fixed-effect model to test the relationship between the uncertainty of intergovernmental transfer payments and the quality of economic development. The results of the study show that the uncertainty of transfer payments faced by the provincial and prefecture-level municipal governments has a significant negative impact on the quality of the economic development of the jurisdiction; the prefecture-level municipal governments are more negatively affected due to facing greater financial pressure. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the uncertainty of general transfer payments and special transfer payments faced by provincial governments and prefecture-level municipal governments has a significant inhibitory effect on the quality of economic development in the jurisdiction, and has more impact on the prefecture-level municipal governments, but the uncertainty of tax rebate has no significant inhibitory effect on the quality of economic development in the jurisdiction. The dampening effect of transfer payment uncertainty in the eastern region is lower than that in the economically underdeveloped central and western regions, which is more pronounced when the government level is lowered from the provincial government to the municipal government. The analysis of the influence mechanism shows that when the provincial and prefecture-level municipal governments face higher transfer payment uncertainty, it will increase the bias of productive fiscal expenditure, thus alleviating the financial pressure, thus reducing the quality of economic development in the bailiwick.
- fiscal expenditure,
- transfer payment,
- uncertainty,
- quality of economic development,
- total factor productivity,
- government,
- influence mechanism

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References(42)

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