The Effect and Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Resident Consumption: Based on CFPS Data

LI Cheng; YU Hai-dong

Volume 36 Issue 6

Nov. 2021

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LI Cheng, YU Hai-dong. The Effect and Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Resident Consumption: Based on CFPS Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2021, 36(6): 31-50.

Citation:

LI Cheng, YU Hai-dong. The Effect and Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Resident Consumption: Based on CFPS Data[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2021, 36(6): 31-50.

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The Effect and Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Resident Consumption: Based on CFPS Data

School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061, China

Received Date: 2021-05-28
Available Online: 2021-12-16
Publish Date: 2021-11-28

Abstract

Abstract

A resident optimal consumption decision model embodying economic policy uncertainty being constructed, this paper employs economic policy uncertainty index and China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data to verify the impact and mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on household consumption from micro levels. It is found that economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on household consumption, but the impact of different types of policy uncertainty is different; among them, the negative impact of fiscal policy uncertainty is the strongest, followed by the impact of monetary policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty, and the impact of exchange rate policy uncertainty is the weakest. It is also found that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on resident consumption through preventive savings channels; for those with high preventive saving motivation such as imperfect insurance protection, high family support ratio or rural registered residence, resident consumption is most greatly affected by the economic policy uncertainty. Finally, economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on resident consumption through the wealth effect channel; for those with high wealth effects such as higher real estate value and higher property income, resident consumption is most greatly affected by the economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, policy decision authorities should pay attention to the continuity, stability, and predictability of economic policies, and avoid economic policy uncertainty that weakens the effectiveness of the policy itself.
- economic policy,
- economic policy uncertainty,
- resident consumption,
- resident consumption expenditure,
- consumption decision,
- preventive saving,
- wealth effect

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References(47)

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