The Heterogeneous Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth and Its Mechanism: A Case Study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

WANG Ying-ying; PENG Rong

Volume 37 Issue 6

Nov. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics > 2022 > 37(6): 25-35

WANG Ying-ying, PENG Rong. The Heterogeneous Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth and Its Mechanism: A Case Study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 37(6): 25-35.

Citation:

WANG Ying-ying, PENG Rong. The Heterogeneous Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth and Its Mechanism: A Case Study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 37(6): 25-35.

Citation:

PDF( 1096 KB)

The Heterogeneous Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth and Its Mechanism: A Case Study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

New Development Institute, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China

Received Date: 2022-05-08
Available Online: 2023-01-13
Publish Date: 2022-11-28

Abstract

Abstract

The impact of population aging on economic growth is an important topic concerned by governments and academia. China has actively responded to the aging of the population as a national strategy since the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China; in the "Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China", it is clearly stated that we should actively develop the elderly care programs and services, optimize the elderly services, and promote the realization of basic elderly care services. The economic consequences of population aging are widely concerned in the existing literature, but the previous studies have generally ignored the characteristics of population aging development and its impact on economic growth. Taking Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area basically reflecting all stages of population aging development as a case, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the impact of population aging on economic growth. The results show that the impact of different stages of population aging on economic growth is featured with a U-shaped nonlinear relationship, and before entering a moderately aging society, population aging has a inhibitory effect on economic growth mainly through labor supply and capital substitution of labor; the effect of population aging on economic growth is gradually turning positive stepping into a moderately aging society, especially in the late stages of a moderately aging society and a heavily aging society. The underlying mechanism stems from the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure brought about by the effect of capital substitution for labor, and the adverse effect of population aging mitigated or offset by the effect of technological progress driven by population aging. China's population aging is an inevitable trend, and the government should take early countermeasures to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure to properly cope with the impact of population aging on national economic growth.
- population aging,
- economic growth,
- stage heterogeneity,
- Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,
- capital substitution,
- labor supply

FullText(HTML)

References(28)

References

[1]	PECCHENINO R A, POLLARD P S. Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, 24(2): 145-169. doi: 10.1016/S0164-0704(02)00024-1
[2]	ABEYWARDHANA D K Y. The impact of ageing population on economic growth in South Asia[J]. Asian Social Science, 2019, 15(7): 70-76. doi: 10.5539/ass.v15n7p70
[3]	YASHIRO N. Aging of the population in Japan and its implications to the other Asian countries[J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 1997, 8(2): 245-261. doi: 10.1016/S1049-0078(97)90019-1
[4]	胡鞍钢, 刘生龙, 马振国. 人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据[J]. 人口研究, 2012(3): 14-26. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKYZ201203003.htm
[5]	盖骁敏, 张双双. 人口老龄化对中国经济增长的影响研究——基于劳动力供给和资本投资视角[J]. 山东社会科学, 2018(6): 163-167. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDSK201806022.htm
[6]	李琼, 李松林, 张蓝澜, 等. 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化时空特征及其经济效应[J]. 地理研究, 2020(9): 2130-2147. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLYJ202009013.htm
[7]	PRETTNER K. Population aging and endogenous economic growth[J]. Journal of Population Economics, 2013, 26(2): 811-834. doi: 10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
[8]	PHAM THACH NGOC, VO DUC HONG. Aging population and economic growth in developing countries: a quantile regression approach[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2021, 57(1): 1-15. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2020.1857145
[9]	BLOOM D E, WILLIAMSON J G. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia[J]. World Bank Economic Review, 1998, 12(3): 419-455. doi: 10.1093/wber/12.3.419
[10]	BLOOM D E, CANNIMG D, SEVILLA J. The demographic dividend: a new perspective on the economic consequences of population change[J]. Foreign Affairs, 2003, 82(3): 148-149.
[11]	BLOOM D E, CANNING D, MANSFIELDR K, et al. Demographic change, social security systems and savings[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54(1): 92-114. doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.12.004
[12]	BLOOM D E, CANNING D, FINK G. Implications of population ageing for economic growth[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2010, 26(4): 583-612. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grq038
[13]	蔡昉. 人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J]. 人口研究, 2004(2): 2-9. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKYZ200402000.htm
[14]	李乐乐, 秦强. 人口老龄化、社会保障支出与经济发展[J]. 经济问题探索, 2020(5): 40-52. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJWS202005005.htm
[15]	符建华, 曹晓晨. 人口老龄化对中国经济高质量发展的影响研究[J]. 经济问题探索, 2021(6): 44-55. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJWS202106005.htm
[16]	包玉香. 人口老龄化的区域经济效应分析——基于新古典经济增长模型[J]. 人口与经济, 2012(1): 1-7. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKJJ201201001.htm
[17]	齐红倩, 闫海春. 人口老龄化抑制中国经济增长了吗?[J]. 经济评论, 2018(6): 28-40. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJPL201806003.htm
[18]	ACEMOGLU D, JOHNSON S. Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006
[19]	李文星, 徐长生, 艾春荣. 中国人口年龄结构和居民消费: 1989—2004[J]. 经济研究, 2008(7): 118-129. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJYJ200807011.htm
[20]	谢雪燕, 朱晓阳. 人口老龄化、技术创新与经济增长[J]. 中国软科学, 2020(6): 42-53. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGRK202006005.htm
[21]	李建民, 王晶晶. 人口老龄化背景下经济增长的国际比较[J]. 南开学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2020(4): 65-76. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LKXB202004007.htm
[22]	王录仓, 武荣伟, 刘海猛, 等. 县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016(8): 921-931. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLKJ201608001.htm
[23]	都阳. 构建中国特色人口老龄化应对方略[N]. 经济日报, 2021-03-26 (10).
[24]	ACEMOGLU D, RESTREPO P. Artificial intelligence, automation, and work. the economics of artificial intelligence: an agenda[M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2018: 191-236.
[25]	DARON ACEMOGLU, JOSHUA LINN. Market size in innovation: theory and evidence from the pharmaceutical industry[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004, 119(3): 1049-1090.
[26]	都阳, 封永刚. 人口快速老龄化对经济增长的冲击[J]. 经济研究, 2021(2): 71-88. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJYJ202102006.htm
[27]	邵丽, 嵇振华, 崔霞, 等. 东北地区人口问题和经济增长的空间计量分析[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2020(4): 571-583. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLTJ202004002.htm
[28]	范宪伟. 推动银发经济高质量发展(新论)[N]. 人民日报, 2021-12-24(05).