On the Carrying Capacity of Social Old-age Security Systems under Population Aging Pressure

Population aging has become a major pressure and significant challenge affecting China's social and economic development. How to build Social Old-age Security Systems that adapt to the needs of an aging society is a continuous focus of the academic attention. Based on carrying capacity theory, this study proposes the concept of carrying capacity of social old-age security systems. Through constructing an "economy-service" two-dimensional analytical framework, it systematically elucidates China's carrying capacity of social old-age security under the pressure of population aging. Temporally, from 2011 to 2022, China's carrying capacity of social old-age security systems increased from a baseline value of 0.214 to 0.323, with both economic security and service provision showing fluctuating upward trends. Spatially, based on different resource endowments and developmental stages, the provinces have developed differentiated pathways in their carrying capacity of social old-age security systems. Further research reveals an 'inverted U' lagged-type dynamic relationship between population aging and the carrying capacity of social old-age security systems. Three core mechanisms emerge: structural dividend effects, elastic constraint effects, and compound pressure effects. Notably, the intrinsic mechanisms through which population aging influences economic carrying capacity and service carrying capacity, demonstrate significant differences. This study provides theoretical foundations and policy insights for constructing social old-age security systems that adapt to population aging.