2019 Vol. 34, No. 6

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Economic Theory and Exploration
On the Impact of Technological Progress in Industrial Robot on Employment: A Theoretical Model Framework
HAN Min-chun, HAN Qing-jiang, FENG Zhong
2019, 34(6): 4-10.
[Abstract](279) [FullText HTML] (159) [PDF 1123KB](20)
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Through modeling and analyzing the employment effect of the technological progress in industrial robots in manufacturing industry, it is found that: the application of the second generation industrial robots in Chinese manufacturing industry not only brings about the employment destruction effect, but also produces the employment creation effect; the use of intelligent robots to replace the second generation industrial robots will add the employment crowding-out effect of intelligent robots on the basis of the former two employment effects, that is, the replacement process will have a greater negative impact on employment. Therefore, it is recommended that Chinese government should steadily promote the "automation" and "intellectualization" of manufacturers on the basis of pilot projects, provide a good vocational training for the substituted labor forces, enhance the human capital of the manufacturing industry comprehensively.
Is Winter Coming in Population Aging and Technological Progress: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries
DENG Xiang, ZHANG Wei, WAN Chun-lin
2019, 34(6): 11-23.
[Abstract](485) [FullText HTML] (146) [PDF 2200KB](21)
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On the basis of reviewing the relationship between population aging and technological progress, and using the cross-border panel data of 36 OECD member countries from 1990 to 2017, this paper empirically investigates the effect of population aging on technological progress. The empirical results show that: at present, the effect of population aging on technological progress is significantly positive, and its internal mechanism may be that families and enterprises have made the optimal response to population aging, which makes the positive effect of population aging on technological progress higher than its negative effect; at present, the population aging of OECD countries has not hindered technological progress, which is still valid by using alternative variables, reverse causal identification and other methods for robustness test. The findings are conducive to a correct understanding of the impact of population aging on technological progress, which can reduce the negative effects of population aging on technological progress.
On the Spatial Pattern of Innovative Outputs of University and Its Spatial Spillover Effects in China
LI Hong-jin, FAN Xin-mei, LI Sheng-hui
2019, 34(6): 24-34.
[Abstract](334) [FullText HTML] (132) [PDF 1960KB](17)
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Innovation-driven development strategy has been enhancing the function of scientific and technological innovation in the economic and social development, and universities in different regions play an important role in the scientific and technological innovation. Based on the spatial panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2016, this paper investigated the spatial pattern of innovative outputs of universities and analyzed the factors and spatial spillover effects of innovative outputs of the universities in different regions in China by using spatial econometric models. The results indicate that the innovative outputs of regional universities are distributed in an evident gradient with positive spatial autocorrelation, and the influence of the high-innovation-output area is increasing; the active degree of regional technology market has negative influence on innovative outputs of regional universities; the increase in the investment of scientific research funds and government support for science and technology have significant positive spillover effect on the increase in innovative outputs of regional universities. However, the economic level of surrounding areas has negative spillover effect on the innovative outputs of local universities. In addition, the level of foreign exchange of regional universities has no significant influence on the innovative outputs of intraregional or interregional universities. On the basis of the conclusion, this paper brings forward some policy suggestions in terms of the university, technology market and local government.
Finance and Capital Markets
The Development of Digital Inclusive Finance and Industrial Structure Upgrading: Empirical Evidence from 283 Cities
TANG Wen-jin, LI Shuang, TAO Yun-qing
2019, 34(6): 35-49.
[Abstract](1672) [FullText HTML] (638) [PDF 1511KB](265)
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It is of positive significance in the development of digital inclusive finance for the upgrading of industrial structure. This paper theoretically analyzes the nonlinear relationship between the development of digital inclusive finance and industrial structure upgrading. Based on the panel data of 283 cities from 2011 to 2015, the panel threshold model and other regression methods are used to comprehensively and empirically analyze the relationship between the development of digital inclusive finance and industrial structure upgrading. The results show that there is a non-linear relationship between the development of digital inclusive finance and industrial structure upgrading; there is a bottleneck in the development of digital inclusive finance, featured with a threshold effect; the coverage breadth of digital inclusive finance has a long-term and significant positive effect on industrial structure upgrading; there is a nonlinear relationship between the depth and digitization level of digital inclusive finance and industrial structure upgrading; the non-linear effects of digital inclusive financial development on the industrial structure upgrading in different regions are heterogeneous, the positive effect becoming bigger from the east to the west. This finding provides an empirical support for the government and financial institutions to strengthen the construction of digital financial infrastructure, especially pay attention to upgrading digitization through increasing the supply of inclusive financial services in less developed areas, and prevent the excessive development of digital inclusive finance from bringing negative external effects to the upgrading of industrial structure.
Ultimate Control Allocation and Refinancing: Managerial Entrenchment or Interest Encroachment
JIAN Guan-qun
2019, 34(6): 50-63.
[Abstract](221) [FullText HTML] (128) [PDF 1329KB](12)
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The influence of two kinds of agency problems in ultimate control allocation on the choice of refinancing mode needs to be reunderstood in the context of complex network relationship. On the basis of dual control chain, this paper focuses on the new calculation of the holistic evaluation of ultimate control allocation and explores the transmission mechanism of its choice of refinancing mode through the managerial entrenchment. The results show that: the higher index of ultimate control allocation, the more inclined the company is to choose convertible bonds, followed by corporate bonds; the lower index of ultimate control allocation, the more inclined the company is to choose private placement; the allocation of ultimate control has negative influence on the managerial entrenchment; the higher the managerial entrenchment, the more inclined the company is to choose private placement, but it is not sensitive to the choice between convertible bonds and bond financing. In addition, managerial entrenchment has partial intermediary effect in the relationship between ultimate control allocation and the choice of refinancing mode. Further study shows that the reason of partial intermediary effect is that the tunneling of the ultimate shareholders have an impact on the refinancing decision. The purpose of this study is to provide a new solution for refinancing alienation behavior from the root, to reveal the dynamic inter-relationship between the two kinds of agency problems, and to provide the target basis for the optimal design of the rights of ultimate control allocation.
Enterprise and Business Economy
Is Executive's Banking Experience Conducive to Enterprise Innovation Investment: Evidence from Private Enterprises
LI Qiang, LIU Shu
2019, 34(6): 64-75.
[Abstract](285) [FullText HTML] (115) [PDF 1526KB](7)
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This paper analyses the influential mechanism of executive's banking experience on enterprise innovation investment from two dimensions of resource effect and rick effect, and makes an empirical test on the private-listed companies in A-share manufacturing industry from 2010 to 2017. It is found that banking experience does not alleviate the financing constraints faced by enterprise in innovation investment, but worsens the short-sighted problem among executives, leading to reduction in innovation investment; moreover, the negative impact of executive's banking experience on innovation investment is pronounced in small enterprises, non-capital-intensive enterprises, and non-high-tech enterprises. The above conclusions enrich the research on the influential factors of enterprise in innovation investment and expand the research literature on the Upper Echelons Theory from the perspective of executive's career experience, which helps to fully understand the economic consequence of executive's banking experience.
The Ways of Family Involvement in Management Affecting Corporate Technological Innovation: Evidences from the Pearl River Delta
XIE Xin-yan
2019, 34(6): 76-86.
[Abstract](362) [FullText HTML] (181) [PDF 1127KB](22)
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The present literatures regard family involvement in management as a motive force of enterprise technological innovation, but there are many divergences in influence mechanism. The explanations from Agency Theory and Stewardship Theory are the reduction of agency cost and the promotion of adventure respectively, while the expectation to continue the enterprise life as a positive impact on enterprise innovation is the explanation from Socio-emotional Wealth Theory. From the perspective of Resource-based View(RBV), taking R & D department, technology import, and brand as intervening variables, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between family management and enterprise technological innovation through analyzing the data of private enterprises from 4 mainland cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that family enterprises have a higher motivation toward bearing the risks brought by the establishment of R & D department, toward the introduction of external technology and brand establishment to meet the pursuit of sustainable development, all of which have improved the level of technological innovation, while brand factors play a more important role.
Law and Economics
A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Investor Losses in Securities Misrepresentation Cases: From the Perspective of the Efficient Market Hypothesis
XU Wen-ming, MO Dan
2019, 34(6): 87-99.
[Abstract](302) [FullText HTML] (215) [PDF 1092KB](20)
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The estimation of losses in securities misrepresentation cases has been a challenge in both the judiciary practice and theoretical discussion. The empirical analysis of issued judgments concerning securities misrepresentation reveals that there is an obvious inconsistency in identifying the dates for revelation and estimating the reduction for systematic risks. The problem originates from the fact that "fraud on the market theory" only indicates that misrepresentation will affect securities prices, but fails to explain when and how the prices are affected. The efficient market hypothesis complements the theoretical insufficiency, and a theoretical model is formulated based on the above two theories. Furthermore, the event-study method is applied to a sample of listed stocks sanctioned by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and its regional offices, and it is found that they only experienced significant and negative abnormal returns around-12.03% on the date when these companies disclosed that they have received the Notice of Investigation. The aforementioned results extend the model used by the judiciary to calculate losses in cases of securities misrepresentation, which is expected to improve the efficiency of securities civil litigation institution.
Campaign-style Law Enforcement from the Perspective of Residual Control Rights: Investigation From Legal Economics
YANG Li
2019, 34(6): 100-112.
[Abstract](357) [FullText HTML] (274) [PDF 1306KB](18)
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Campaign-style law enforcement has become a weapon of governance that cannot be ignored in the field of administrative law enforcement. Different disciplines have drawn different research conclusions from different approaches and methods.Generally speaking, the evaluation of campaign-style law enforcement in the academic circles has gone through three different stages: early complete denial, gradual rational understanding and limited affirmation at present. Based on the principal premise of principal-agent, residual control and rational expectation, this paper proposes a model of campaign-style law enforcement by constructing an economic model of administrative law enforcement agencies, local governments and social benefits, making a rational interpretation of campaign-style law enforcement. It is argued that the essence of campaign-style law enforcement is the contingent distribution of residual control rights between local governments and administrative law enforcement agencies due to different situations, which is tested by real cases, and it may achieve the "institutionalization" when the specific conditions in law are met.

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