Internetization of Banking, Regional Business Span and Development of Commercial Bank: Evidence from the Establishment of Direct Bank by City Commercial Bank
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摘要: 以我国城市商业银行设立直销银行为例，检验区域性商业银行尝试进行互联网化的效果，并进一步对城商行跨区域经营的影响以及商业银行线上发展与线下拓展相结合的问题进行探讨。实证结果表明，设立直销银行将对城商行的存款吸收带来负向影响，但也增加了银行收益，其中前者主要体现在区域经营跨度较小的银行，后者主要体现在区域经营跨度较大的银行，且直销银行主要通过移动端而非网页端平台发挥作用。商业银行可在允许的区域范围内适当通过“线下拓展+线上渗透”的方式扩大市场并挖掘市场潜力，但相对而言，区域经营跨度较小的银行不宜盲目模仿设立同质化互联网平台。Abstract: Taking the establishment of direct bank in China's city commercial banks as an example, this paper tests the effect of internetization attempt of regional commercial banks, further analyzes the regional business span of banks, and discusses the combination of online and offline expansion of banks. The empirical results show that the establishment of direct banks will have a negative impact on the deposit absorption of city commercial banks, but increase the bank income. The former is mainly reflected in the banks with small regional business span, while the latter is mainly reflected in the banks with large regional business span. Further analysis shows that direct banks mainly play a role through the mobile terminal rather than the web platform. The above findings suggest that commercial banks can appropriately expand the market and tap the market potential through "offline expansion + online penetration" within the allowable regional scope. However, for banks with small regional business span, it is not suitable to blindly imitate national commercial banks to establish a homogeneous Internet platform.The government should further promote the in-depth development of digital finance and place the foothold of digital financial services at the level of enterprise technological innovation. The formulation of relevant policies should be based on local policies and enterprises.
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表 1 部分城商行直销银行的设立情况
名称 对应城商行 设立年份 名称 对应城商行 设立年份 天空银行 湖北银行 2015 e钱庄 长沙银行 2015 鼎融易 郑州银行 2014 壹伴客 大连银行 2017 徽常有财 徽商银行 2015 你好银行 南京银行 2014 金e融 江西银行 2015 风筝银行 潍坊银行 2015 小草银行 晋城银行 2015 本溪bank 本溪银行 2017 钱承有余 重庆银行 2017 上行快线 上海银行 2014 新丝路bank 西安银行 2015 石银直销 石嘴山银行 2016 恐龙银行 自贡银行 2016 起点银行 苏州银行 2017 注：由作者手工整理得出。表 2同。 
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表 2 变量定义与统计
变量名称 变量定义 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值 depor 存款余额/总资产(%) 63.63 8.52 42.56 85.91 ldra 贷款余额/存款余额(%) 65.79 10.65 38.97 89.80 nim 净利息收入/贷款余额(%) 4.65 1.96 1.01 11.07 lnnim 净利息收入(元，对数形式) 21.84 1.00 18.63 23.95 dbank 是否设立直销银行 0.43 0.50 0 1 georange1 银行设有分支机构的城市数 8.66 3.83 1 17 georange2 银行是否设有跨省分支机构 0.512 0.501 0 1 size 总资产(元，对数形式) 25.77 0.76 23.51 28.00 car 资本充足率(%) 12.71 1.44 10.41 19.30 nplr 不良贷款率(%) 1.58 0.58 0.05 4.11 list 是否上市 0.10 0.30 0 1 gov 是否国有银行 0.58 0.50 0 1 roa 总资产收益率(%) 0.84 0.33 0.06 2.16 lsp 第一大股东持股比例(%) 18.62 12.30 4.96 75.33 gdp 总部所在城市GDP(元，对数形式) 26.45 0.95 24.03 28.39 pcity 总部所在城市是否省会城市或直辖市 0.39 0.49 0 1 west 总部所在城市是否西部地区城市 0.25 0.44 0 1
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表 3 直销银行的经济效果
变量 (1) (2) (4) (5) f.depor f.ldra f.nim f.lnnim dbank -2.981*(1.630) 2.044**(1.019) 0.676**(0.260) 0.234***(0.079) size -3.766**(1.701) 0.591(0.922) 0.552(0.387) 1.089***(0.088) car -0.278(0.426) -0.095(0.253) -0.053(0.111) -0.031(0.032) ldra 0.003(0.068) 0.727***(0.058) -0.044***(0.016) 0.003(0.004) nplr 1.260(1.491) 1.383*(0.810) 0.432(0.293) 0.106(0.094) list -1.551(2.728) 0.056(1.821) -0.399(0.455) -0.114(0.105) gov 1.911(1.447) 0.932(0.949) -0.495*(0.290) -0.129(0.108) roa 9.053***(3.396) 0.081(1.489) 1.772***(0.461) 0.674***(0.159) lsp -0.066(0.057) 0.009(0.035) -0.014(0.014) -0.003(0.003) gdp -0.316(1.109) -0.503(0.697) 0.587**(0.259) 0.181**(0.079) pcity 6.478***(2.237) -1.606(1.482) -1.117***(0.399) -0.149(0.138) west -1.678(3.729) -2.846(2.303) 2.623***(0.711) 0.731***(0.198) year YES YES YES YES province YES YES YES YES _cons 152.959***(47.631) 19.660(32.385) -23.091***(8.154) -11.547***(2.284) N 283 283 283 283 R2 0.466 0.769 0.554 0.827 VIF 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 注：*、**、***分别表示在10%、5%、1%的水平下显著。下表同。
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表 4 银行区域经营跨度对直销银行经济效果的影响：银行存款
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank -3.130 -8.009*** 1.450 5.018** -2.250 -4.905*** 0.309 4.342*** (2.418) (2.666) (1.471) (2.254) (1.725) (1.717) (1.477) (1.596) size -2.981 -4.949* -0.590 1.639 -3.828 -6.083*** -0.479 4.689** (3.021) (2.645) (1.337) (1.974) (2.918) (2.070) (1.104) (1.794) car 0.664 -0.508 -0.272 0.368 0.044 -0.379 -0.737** 0.171 (0.498) (0.639) (0.372) (0.369) (0.630) (0.491) (0.346) (0.368) ldra -0.035 0.112 0.773*** 0.510*** 0.007 0.217** 0.710*** 0.452*** (0.107) (0.108) (0.078) (0.105) (0.111) (0.083) (0.076) (0.095) nplr 1.187 1.320 1.509 2.830 0.163 -1.127 2.643 3.908** (2.283) (2.063) (1.574) (2.097) (2.515) (1.876) (1.659) (1.623) list -2.429 4.304 0.411 -4.962 -1.960 -3.726* 0.316 -2.922 (3.521) (4.463) (1.884) (4.640) (2.968) (2.149) (2.379) (2.218) gov 2.678 -0.895 -1.477 3.990* 2.978 -4.252** -1.625 2.560 (2.339) (1.995) (1.604) (1.997) (2.497) (1.747) (2.159) (2.039) roa 9.080* 4.161 1.514 -1.586 4.679 8.801** 2.459 0.973 (4.647) (5.232) (2.246) (2.688) (4.451) (3.845) (2.226) (2.161) lsp -0.100 -0.017 0.069 0.078 -0.159 -0.008 -0.027 0.066 (0.123) (0.051) (0.067) (0.068) (0.143) (0.062) (0.054) (0.059) gdp 1.454 -2.293 0.158 -0.579 2.691 -4.026** 0.772 0.457 (2.097) (1.715) (0.978) (1.777) (2.215) (1.896) (1.192) (1.290) pcity 4.025 7.246** -1.930 1.228 1.257 27.272*** -3.580* -8.484*** (2.565) (3.523) (1.809) (4.125) (2.707) (3.471) (1.813) (3.045) west 20.619*** -14.658*** -10.130*** -1.169 9.389 -36.413*** 2.067 12.774*** (5.740) (3.840) (3.148) (4.389) (12.685) (4.499) (4.803) (3.804) year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES province YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES _cons 73.207 249.775*** 36.491 -5.668 77.364 315.799*** 21.013 -107.697* (85.031) (76.328) (42.353) (73.289) (78.859) (51.442) (48.386) (57.476) N 153 106 153 106 145 138 145 138 R2 0.490 0.626 0.828 0.765 0.561 0.663 0.850 0.788 VIF 6.24 4.06 6.24 4.06 6.00 4.60 6.00 4.60
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表 5 银行区域经营跨度对直销银行经济效果的影响：银行收益
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank 1.224*** 0.301 0.350*** -0.029 1.135** 0.161 0.331** 0.063 (0.371) (0.494) (0.109) (0.190) (0.431) (0.385) (0.130) (0.137) size 0.056 0.141 0.987*** 0.688*** -0.431 0.786* 0.874*** 1.158*** (0.535) (0.678) (0.105) (0.231) (0.502) (0.413) (0.088) (0.175) car -0.047 -0.108 0.005 -0.085 0.059 -0.053 0.002 -0.052 (0.109) (0.150) (0.026) (0.055) (0.130) (0.111) (0.026) (0.049) ldra -0.061*** -0.040 -0.004 0.009 -0.034 -0.015 0.002 0.013 (0.018) (0.026) (0.004) (0.010) (0.023) (0.028) (0.004) (0.009) nplr 0.191 -0.061 0.085 -0.275 -0.438 0.416 -0.073 0.117 (0.451) (0.707) (0.089) (0.281) (0.498) (0.538) (0.081) (0.289) list -0.495 0.162 -0.176 0.268 0.561 -0.501 0.019 -0.102 (0.539) (0.958) (0.111) (0.354) (0.584) (0.625) (0.146) (0.235) gov 0.083 -0.963 0.073 -0.424* -0.415 -0.442 -0.050 -0.211 (0.333) (0.591) (0.094) (0.233) (0.360) (0.546) (0.101) (0.255) roa 2.457*** 1.887*** 0.797*** 0.522** 2.008*** 1.843*** 0.622** 0.840** (0.722) (0.674) (0.175) (0.244) (0.725) (0.659) (0.263) (0.349) lsp -0.043 0.008 -0.010* 0.007 -0.015 -0.008 -0.006 -0.003 (0.026) (0.020) (0.005) (0.007) (0.025) (0.019) (0.006) (0.009) gdp 0.398 0.356 0.179*** 0.041 0.731** 0.118 0.288*** -0.027 (0.265) (0.342) (0.057) (0.216) (0.320) (0.303) (0.062) (0.200) pcity -1.108** -0.606 -0.256** 0.142 -0.728 -2.060** -0.206 -0.010 (0.450) (0.798) (0.100) (0.409) (0.558) (0.797) (0.131) (0.447) west -0.619 2.835** 0.234 0.633 2.362 3.828*** 0.796* 0.726 (0.730) (1.319) (0.202) (0.517) (1.866) (1.159) (0.440) (0.473) year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES province YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES _cons -3.443 -6.786 -8.692*** 3.068 -2.526 -19.372 -8.839*** -8.461 (12.877) (20.300) (2.360) (9.112) (13.149) (14.007) (2.449) (8.453) N 153 106 153 106 145 138 145 138 R2 0.649 0.666 0.880 0.727 0.669 0.672 0.897 0.785 VIF 6.24 4.06 6.24 4.06 6.00 4.60 6.00 4.60
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表 6 网页端与移动端直销银行的经济效果
因变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) f.depor f.ldra f.nim f.lnnim f.depor f.ldra f.nim f.lnnim dbank_net -0.629 0.006 0.272 0.104 (1.628) (0.862) (0.334) (0.100) dbank_app -3.105* 1.753* 0.531** 0.183** (1.640) (1.040) (0.251) (0.080) size -5.169*** 1.226 0.486 1.040*** -3.962** 0.861 0.439 1.055*** (1.621) (0.765) (0.335) (0.083) (1.644) (0.887) (0.373) (0.088) car -0.412 -0.140 -0.051 -0.037 -0.246 -0.145 -0.044 -0.029 (0.395) (0.230) (0.103) (0.027) (0.411) (0.245) (0.106) (0.031) ldra -0.075 0.794*** -0.040*** 0.005 -0.007 0.743*** -0.048*** 0.002 (0.074) (0.052) (0.014) (0.005) (0.066) (0.057) (0.015) (0.004) nplr 0.759 0.971 0.103 -0.027 1.168 1.315 0.349 0.078 (1.576) (0.855) (0.269) (0.092) (1.505) (0.813) (0.283) (0.092) list -1.588 0.065 -0.253 -0.069 -1.496 0.015 -0.280 -0.080 (2.510) (1.460) (0.445) (0.106) (2.714) (1.779) (0.461) (0.105) gov 2.984** 0.675 -0.500 -0.110 1.906 0.888 -0.386 -0.097 (1.503) (0.832) (0.314) (0.114) (1.508) (0.949) (0.314) (0.112) roa 7.785*** -0.084 1.737*** 0.655*** 8.773** 0.119 1.766*** 0.670*** (2.898) (1.626) (0.455) (0.166) (3.361) (1.490) (0.451) (0.157) lsp -0.037 -0.005 0.005 0.002 -0.052 -0.002 -0.010 -0.002 (0.054) (0.031) (0.012) (0.003) (0.055) (0.036) (0.013) (0.003) gdp -0.413 -0.459 0.482* 0.153** -0.432 -0.473 0.510** 0.155* (1.219) (0.658) (0.255) (0.077) (1.126) (0.682) (0.253) (0.079) pcity 6.694*** -1.453 -0.682 0.004 7.065*** -1.781 -1.010** -0.107 (2.316) (1.421) (0.411) (0.135) (2.252) (1.483) (0.424) (0.147) west -4.563 -3.525 2.634** 0.997*** -2.282 -2.577 2.356*** 0.650*** (5.325) (3.157) (1.187) (0.359) (3.790) (2.347) (0.764) (0.207) year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES province YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES _cons 200.761*** 0.060 -19.754** -10.119*** 161.033*** 11.562 -17.998** -9.929*** (51.038) (29.174) (8.146) (2.937) (47.430) (31.209) (8.393) (2.530) N 318 318 318 318 289 289 289 289 R2 0.504 0.782 0.518 0.844 0.475 0.770 0.529 0.815 VIF 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01
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表 7 银行区域经营跨度对移动端直销银行经济效果的影响：银行存款
因变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank_app -3.932* -7.611*** 1.154 5.244** -3.036* -4.804*** 0.379 4.418*** (2.318) (2.434) (1.487) (2.135) (1.664) (1.652) (1.456) (1.572) size -3.010 -5.521* -0.449 2.434 -3.686 -6.461*** -0.490 5.126*** (2.874) (2.912) (1.323) (1.800) (2.835) (2.085) (1.098) (1.628) car 0.819* -0.675 -0.330 0.368 0.105 -0.339 -0.739** 0.115 (0.470) (0.634) (0.378) (0.371) (0.602) (0.487) (0.324) (0.370) ldra -0.033 0.122 0.778*** 0.526*** 0.008 0.213** 0.710*** 0.464*** (0.105) (0.109) (0.078) (0.107) (0.108) (0.081) (0.076) (0.096) nplr 1.170 0.350 1.514 3.168 0.207 -1.587 2.648 4.076** (2.237) (2.374) (1.583) (2.094) (2.457) (1.878) (1.638) (1.566) list -2.337 3.060 0.474 -4.955 -1.905 -3.564 0.307 -3.179 (3.487) (4.139) (1.853) (4.383) (2.977) (2.194) (2.372) (2.256) gov 2.683 -1.425 -1.576 4.168** 2.938 -4.643** -1.637 2.955 (2.302) (2.068) (1.626) (1.976) (2.445) (1.740) (2.140) (1.897) roa 9.210* 4.177 1.484 -1.411 4.858 7.982** 2.451 1.311 (4.615) (5.435) (2.253) (2.614) (4.466) (3.728) (2.240) (2.059) lsp -0.096 0.006 0.068 0.058 -0.150 0.012 -0.028 0.051 (0.122) (0.065) (0.067) (0.064) (0.143) (0.066) (0.054) (0.053) gdp 1.615 -3.479* 0.104 -0.171 2.753 -4.377** 0.774 0.664 (2.078) (1.914) (0.985) (1.664) (2.216) (1.888) (1.150) (1.259) pcity 4.562* 9.547** -1.965 0.369 1.615 27.895*** -3.627* -9.164*** (2.545) (3.789) (1.910) (3.911) (2.610) (3.609) (1.832) (2.979) west 21.592*** -16.137*** -9.643*** -0.895 8.285 -36.534*** 2.404 12.957*** (5.734) (3.897) (3.007) (4.285) (12.776) (4.598) (4.519) (3.865) year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES province YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES _cons 66.363 296.928*** 34.348 -37.306 70.174 335.145*** 21.334 -124.508** (82.774) (90.091) (41.993) (66.144) (76.175) (52.741) (46.754) (50.924) N 153 110 153 110 147 142 147 142 R2 0.501 0.588 0.827 0.769 0.587 0.668 0.852 0.792 VIF 6.19 4.04 6.19 4.04 5.78 4.57 5.78 4.57
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表 8 银行区域经营跨度对移动端直销银行经济效果的影响：银行收益
因变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank_app 1.100*** 0.037 0.274** -0.104 0.773* -0.089 0.201 -0.016 (0.383) (0.464) (0.113) (0.175) (0.440) (0.367) (0.133) (0.127) size 0.151 -0.290 1.022*** 0.538** -0.319 0.415 0.913*** 0.995*** (0.544) (0.596) (0.114) (0.212) (0.536) (0.493) (0.103) (0.181) car -0.099 -0.090 -0.009 -0.086 0.050 -0.024 0.003 -0.041 (0.106) (0.154) (0.026) (0.057) (0.123) (0.123) (0.025) (0.052) ldra -0.058*** -0.053** -0.003 0.006 -0.031 -0.030 0.003 0.008 (0.018) (0.024) (0.004) (0.009) (0.023) (0.028) (0.005) (0.008) nplr 0.195 -0.277 0.086 -0.375 -0.385 0.127 -0.052 -0.016 (0.450) (0.622) (0.089) (0.253) (0.513) (0.532) (0.088) (0.264) list -0.462 0.543 -0.159 0.357 0.549 -0.111 0.016 0.030 (0.544) (1.002) (0.112) (0.372) (0.613) (0.586) (0.158) (0.228) gov 0.018 -0.730 0.048 -0.354 -0.608 -0.350 -0.116 -0.180 (0.341) (0.575) (0.098) (0.213) (0.391) (0.556) (0.110) (0.230) roa 2.426*** 1.973*** 0.790*** 0.569** 1.984** 1.850*** 0.620** 0.809** (0.715) (0.667) (0.180) (0.243) (0.768) (0.644) (0.273) (0.330) lsp -0.044 0.021 -0.010* 0.011 -0.017 0.011 -0.007 0.004 (0.026) (0.018) (0.006) (0.007) (0.026) (0.020) (0.006) (0.009) gdp 0.349 0.191 0.166** -0.036 0.764** -0.091 0.299*** -0.110 (0.278) (0.392) (0.063) (0.206) (0.347) (0.322) (0.069) (0.183) pcity -1.177** -0.372 -0.264** 0.253 -0.814 -1.597* -0.227 0.188 (0.454) (0.896) (0.105) (0.400) (0.560) (0.843) (0.135) (0.407) west -0.384 2.632* 0.358* 0.545 2.915 3.635*** 1.010** 0.623 (0.696) (1.325) (0.194) (0.512) (2.012) (1.163) (0.476) (0.462) year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES province YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES _cons -4.253 8.680 -9.247*** 8.991 -6.445 -4.167 -10.277*** -2.065 (13.296) (19.597) (2.588) (8.132) (14.139) (16.686) (2.755) (8.115) N 153 110 153 110 147 142 147 142 R2 0.641 0.634 0.872 0.704 0.648 0.633 0.886 0.758 VIF 6.19 4.04 6.19 4.04 5.78 4.57 5.78 4.57
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表 9 稳健性检验
Panel A直销银行的经济效果 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 变量 f.depor f.ldra f.nim f.lnnim f.depor f.ldra f.nim f.lnnim 剔除直辖市样本 异方差稳健标准误 dbank -3.136* 2.418** 0.658** 0.228*** -2.981** 2.044** 0.676*** 0.234*** (1.663) (0.987) (0.265) (0.080) (1.190) (0.976) (0.211) (0.063) N 274 274 274 274 283 283 283 283 R2 0.446 0.773 0.551 0.816 0.466 0.769 0.554 0.827 Panel B直销银行设立、区域经营跨度与银行存款：剔除直辖市样本 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 变量 f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank -3.178 -7.986*** 1.456 5.061** -2.636 -4.905*** 1.012 4.342*** (2.418) (2.659) (1.474) (2.245) (1.856) (1.717) (1.449) (1.596) N 149 104 149 104 136 138 136 138 R2 0.463 0.625 0.825 0.765 0.533 0.663 0.852 0.788 Panel C直销银行设立、区域经营跨度与银行存款：异方差稳健标准误 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 变量 f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra f.depor f.depor f.ldra f.ldra 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank -3.130* -8.009*** 1.450 5.018** -2.250 -4.905*** 0.309 4.342*** (1.819) (2.220) (1.372) (2.175) (1.604) (1.584) (1.374) (1.532) N 153 106 153 106 145 138 145 138 R2 0.490 0.626 0.828 0.765 0.561 0.663 0.850 0.788 Panel D直销银行设立、区域经营跨度与银行收益：剔除直辖市样本 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 变量 f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank 1.229*** 0.299 0.348*** -0.028 1.073** 0.161 0.317** 0.063 (0.371) (0.495) (0.110) (0.190) (0.453) (0.385) (0.135) (0.137) N 149 104 149 104 136 138 136 138 R2 0.643 0.664 0.873 0.711 0.666 0.672 0.888 0.785 Panel E直销银行设立、区域经营跨度与银行收益：异方差稳健标准误 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 变量 f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim f.nim f.nim f.lnnim f.lnnim 跨度大 跨度小 跨度大 跨度小 跨省 不跨省 跨省 不跨省 dbank 1.224*** 0.301 0.350*** -0.029 1.135*** 0.161 0.331*** 0.063 (0.307) (0.500) (0.083) (0.190) (0.333) (0.364) (0.096) (0.134) N 153 106 153 106 145 138 145 138 R2 0.649 0.666 0.880 0.727 0.669 0.672 0.897 0.785 注：出于简洁性的考虑，表中各方程控制变量的回归结果省略。
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