央行数字货币对支付体系的影响研究

王博; 赵真真

央行数字货币对支付体系的影响研究

王博,
赵真真

南开大学金融学院，天津 300350

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 72073076

国家自然科学基金 71873070

详细信息

作者简介:
王博(1981-)，男，天津人，南开大学金融学院教授，博士生导师

赵真真(1994-)，女，河南周口人，南开大学金融学院博士研究生

中图分类号: F820.2
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- PDF下载量: 75
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-07-11
- 网络出版日期: 2023-03-09
- 刊出日期: 2023-01-28

A Study on the Impact of the Central Bank Digital Currency on Payment System

College of Finance, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China

摘要

摘要: 数字化时代数字经济与信息技术蓬勃发展，倒推着支付体系的更新换代，央行数字货币作为一种新型数字化支付工具应运而生。基于流行的货币支付属性构建货币效用模型研究支付工具的新旧交替，探索央行数字货币如何通过替代现有支付工具开启支付系统新格局，并通过数值模拟预测央行数字货币取代现有支付工具的过程。研究表明：央行数字货币替代现有支付工具的程度由货币转化成本和支付属性决定，计息央行数字货币的替代力强于无息央行数字货币，现金支付被取代的程度更深，存款支付被取代的规模更大。央行数字货币成为未来主流的支付工具是大势所趋，央行对于数字货币的设计应允许其支付属性随时代发展而灵活变换；且央行发行数字货币应从对市场冲击力最小的无息央行数字货币开始，并随着技术的发展有针对性地增加新的功能。
- 数字货币 /
- 央行数字货币 /
- 支付工具 /
- 支付体系 /
- 支付属性 /
- 货币替代
Abstract: The vigorous development of digital economy and information technology in the digital age pushes the renewal of the payment system, and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) emerges as a new type of digital payment tool. In this context, making a currency utility model based on popular currency payment attributes to study the replacement of old and new payment instruments, this paper explores how CBDC can open a new pattern of payment systems by replacing existing payment instruments, and predicts by numerical simulationthe replacement process with CBDC. It is found that the degree to which CBDC replaces existing payment instruments is determined by the cost of currency conversion and payment attributes. The interest-bearing CBDC is stronger than the interest-free CBDC. Cash payments are being replaced to a much greater extent and deposit payments are being replaced on a much larger scale.The findings indicate that it is a general trend to make CBDC the mainstream payment tool in the future; the central bank should allow its payment attributes to change flexibly with the times; and the central bank should first issue the interest free CBDC, which has the least impact on the market, and the functions of CBDC can change along with the technology.
- digital currency /
- CBDC /
- payment instrument /
- payment system /
- payment attribute /
- currency substitution

HTML全文

图 1 央行数字货币冲击现有支付方式的预测结果

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 现金转换为央行数字货币的转换率对于转换成本降低的响应结果

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 存款转换为央行数字货币的转换率对于转换成本降低的响应结果

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 变量与数据来源

变量	衡量指标	数据来源
M	居民人均收入×年末总人口/名义GDP	国家统计局官季度数据
	社会消费品零售总额/名义GDP
cash0	M0/名义GDP	人民银行官网统计数据
deposit0	(M2-M0)/名义GDP	人民银行官网统计数据
pai_cc	户均互联网上网人数负值	国家统计局月度数据
pai_dc	天弘基金余额宝7日年化收益率的月度均值	天天基金网
xita	央行数字货币词频数/数字货币词频数	百度新闻

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 OLS回归结果

	变量	cash⁰	deposit⁰
回归结果	M(income)	1.667^***(6.44)	24.825^***(6.42)
	pIndex	0.031^**(2.42)	-0.544^***(-2.18)
	govpay	-0.178^*(-0.36)	21.186^***(2.84)
稳健性检验	M(consumer)	1.909^***(3.88)	34.913^***(5.24)
	pIndex	0.031^*(1.94)	-0.474^**(-2.18)
	govpay	-1.895^***(-2.91)	-8.032(-0.91)
注：括号内为t值，^、^、^**分别表示在10%、5%、1%水平下显著。下表同。

下载: 导出CSV

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