Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth—From the Perspective of Investment Flow Effect and Population Aging Stock Effect
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摘要: 基于三部门的人力资本驱动OLG模型，利用1995年~2016年、1998年~2015年两个时段的省级面板数据，采用系统GMM方法，探讨人力资本积累中的投资流量效应与老龄化存量效应对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：老年人存活率或预期寿命增加能显著促进经济增长；当期和滞后期的私人人力资本投资的GDP占比或收入占比提高能促进经济增长，但当期公共人力资本投资的GDP占比或收入占比与经济增长显著负相关，滞后期公共人力资本投资的GDP占比或收入占比与经济增长显著正相关，说明老龄化对经济增长有积极的一面；公共人力资本投资效果具有滞后性，因而政府在决策时需有长远考虑；非常规的经济刺激政策对我国经济向人力资本驱动的发展模式转变有负作用，因而应慎用。Abstract: Using provincial panel data of 1995-2016 and 1998-2015 and system-GMM, this paper analyzes the influences of investment flow effect and population aging stock effect of human capital accumulation on economic growth based on the three sectors' OLG growth model driven by human capital. The findings are as follows: the improvement of old people's survival rate or life expectancy would stimulate the economic growth; both current and lagged ratio of private human capital investment and GDP or income have positive influence on economic growth; the current ratio of GDP in public human capital investment or that of income is negatively correlated with economic growth; the lagged ratio of GDP in public human capital investment and or that of income is positively correlated with economic growth. This shows that population aging has positive effect on economy; there is lagged effect of public human capital investment, and the government should make decision for the long run. The special economic stimulus policy in crisis would impose inverse impacts on the transition driven from physical capital investment to human capital investment. Therefore, the government should think it over when enacting stimulus policy.
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表 1 相关变量统计描述
变量 观测数 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值 人均GDP增长率(%) 682 10.022 2.538 2.230 23.600 私人人力资本投资/GDP 682 0.055 0.013 0.015 0.114 公共人力资本投资/GDP 682 0.040 0.027 0.010 0.209 私人人力资本投资/收入 558 0.125 0.035 0.031 0.310 公共人力资本投资/收入 558 0.091 0.062 0.026 0.481 老年人存活率 682 0.920 0.025 0.796 0.967 人均人力资本(元) 682 141 341 110 437 27 379 713 789 人均固定资产投资增长率(%) 682 15.427 11.396 -27.892 65.956 人均消费增长率(%) 682 9.571 5.211 -22.606 62.484 人均进出口总额增长率(%) 682 11.597 21.152 -69.086 138.685 年末从业人员增长率(%) 682 1.597 2.698 -24.696 22.717 私人部门就业占比 682 0.175 0.113 0.034 0.720 
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表 2 1995年~2016年我国人力资本支出GDP占比回归结果
变量 回归Ⅰ 回归Ⅱ 回归Ⅲ 估计(1) 估计(2) 估计(3) 估计(4) 估计(5)
Lag 2.估计(6)
Lag 3.估计(7)
Lag 5.估计(8) 估计(9) 私人人力资本投资/GDP 0.286**
(2.53)0.301*
(1.72)-0.096
(-0.75)-0.253
(-1.21)0.288***
(3.56)0.597***
(7.31)1.197***
(5.66)0.175*
(1.70)0.587*
(1.72)公共人力资本投资/GDP -0.198***
(-3.12)-0.401***
(-3.59)-0.203***
(-4.09)-0.059*
(-1.70)0.071*
(1.78)0.223***
(5.58)0.041
(0.77)0.119
(1.06)0.155*
(1.75)老年人存活率 0.602***
(5.12)0.387***
(3.55)0.798***
(6.74)0.264***
(4.19)0.438
(1.23)0.179**
(2.33)0.569***
(4.63)0.991***
(4.72)0.403**
(2.12)老年人存活率×人力资本存量滞后项 0.022***
(3.62)0.021***
(3.27)0.011**
(2.04)-0.025
(-1.12)0.038***
(3.36)固定资产投资增长率 0.129***
(5.27)0.209***
(3.96)0.133***
(17.43)0.125***
(14.65)0.142***
(12.19)0.076***
(4.28)0.031
(1.13)0.031
(0.53)消费增长率 0.524***
(5.11)0.229***
(5.93)0.076
(0.78)0.057**
(2.26)0.047*
(1.71)0.129***
(5.90)0.201***
(3.73)进出口总额增长率 0.257
(0.98)0.015***
(3.25)0.013**
(2.08)0.007**
(2.09)0.039***
(5.15)0.028**
(2.16)0.008
(0.61)年末从业人员增长率 0.289***
(6.19)0.466***
(10.12)0.544***
(11.22)0.426***
(5.83)0.307***
(4.21)0.022
(0.38)0.301**
(2.21)私人部门就业占比 -0.203***
(-4.94)-0.208***
(-7.74)-0.302***
(-12.37)-0.167***
(-9.93)-0.121***
(-6.32)-0.147***
(-4.09)-0.517***
(-4.83)出生率 -3.277***
(-3.65)-2.092**
(-2.01)-3.027***
(-6.19)-0.124
(-0.45)常数项 -0.531***
(-3.79)-0.359**
(-1.99)-0.373***
(-8.19)-0.378***
(-5.63)-0.347**
(-2.48)-0.309***
(-5.34)-0.431**
(-2.14)-0.916***
(-4.17)-0.576***
(-4.32)AR(1) 0.016 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.022 0.065 AR(2) 0.223 0.003 0.292 0.551 0.114 0.009 0.872 0.725 0.529 Hansen test 0.598 0.398 0.526 0.846 0.902 0.729 0.649 0.734 0.602 说明：括号中为t值；***、**、*分别代表在1%、5%、10%水平下显著；作为核心变量的人力资本投资占比用人力资本支出/GDP衡量；Lag 2./Lag 3./Lag 3.分别表示人力资本投资占比用其2阶、3阶和5阶滞后项。下同。
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表 3 1998年~2015年我国人力资本支出的居民收入占比回归结果
变量 回归Ⅳ 回归Ⅴ 回归Ⅵ 估计(1) 估计(2) 估计(3) 估计(4) 估计(5)
Lag 2.估计(6)
Lag 3.估计(7)
Lag 5.估计(8) 估计(9) 私人人力资本投资/人均收入 0.018***
(4.03)0.014**
(2.13)0.005**
(1.99)0.005*
(1.81)0.469***
(5.49)0.378***
(8.63)0.401***
(11.39)0.004***
(3.43)0.005***
(3.89)公共人力资本投资/人均收入 -0.197***
(-5.33)-0.211***
(-4.11)-0.033**
(-2.11)-0.039**
(-2.33)0.203***
(3.87)0.041**
(2.41)0.028*
(1.73)0.051**
(2.40)0.054***
(5.01)老年人存活率 1.218***
(5.30)1.315***
(6.32)1.328***
(5.98)0.563***
(4.59)0.541*
(1.80)0.372**
(2.15)0.076
(0.79)1.112***
(12.65)1.436***
(8.54)老年人存活率×人力资本存量滞后项 0.013**
(2.09)0.007
(0.83)0.006***
(3.13)-0.006
(-0.58)0.032***
(4.66)固定资产投资增长率 0.132***
(4.98)0.049***
(3.79)0.209***
(9.58)0.054
(0.95)0.076***
(8.63)0.018***
(4.16)0.007
(0.55)0.003
(0.66)消费增长率 0.231***
(5.01)0.124***
(3.89)0.153***
(2.44)0.006
(0.42)0.031
(1.22)0.004
(1.04)0.087***
(4.09)进出口总额增长率 0.028***
(3.79)0.045***
(4.67)0.035***
(5.92)0.029***
(5.61)0.027***
(4.43)0.054***
(8.43)0.047***
(5.33)年末从业人员增长率 0.201***
(3.01)0.238**
(2.05)0.165**
(2.14)-0.082
(-1.08)0.031
(0.88)0.338***
(4.54)0.047
(0.69)私人部门就业占比 -0.214***
(-6.11)-0.132***
(-4.61)-0.132***
(-3.95)-0.131***
(-4.67)-0.176***
(-5.98)-0.123***
(-8.65)-0.226***
(-4.43)出生率 -1.983***
(-3.64)-0.438
(-0.87)-0.165
(-0.46)-1.936**
(-2.33)常数项 -1.651***
(-3.88)-1.237***
(-4.11)-1.425***
(-10.95)-0.452***
(-3.85)-0.468**
(-2.17)-0.374***
(-4.55)0.141
(1.01)-0.564***
(-5.43)-1.278***
(-6.27)AR(1) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.005 0.002 0.002 0.002 AR(2) 0.217 0.158 0.116 0.005 0.183 0.240 0.773 0.322 0.227 Hansen test 0.236 0.238 0.549 0.553 0.638 0.549 0.698 0.779 0.704
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表 4 1995年~2016年我国老龄化存量效应影响机制的回归结果
变量 FE-OLS SYS-GMM 估计(1) 估计(2) 估计(3) 估计(4) 估计(5) 估计(6) 人力资本投资滞后项 6.964*
(1.78)65.87***
(5.67)28.64***
(12.54)556.1***
(98.91)89.2***
(48.21)存活率×总人力资本存量滞后项 -0.583*
(-1.77)-13.66***
(-5.34)-0.794***
(-17.65)-1.263***
(-5.728)-29.89***
(-32.18)存活率×人均人力资本存量滞后项 1.503***
(25.87)2.012***
(26.76)1.549***
(965.1)1.791***
(261.3)1.327***
(78.2)出生率×总人力资本滞后项 0.954***
(6.578)0.762***
(39.27)1.649***
(27.46)出生率×人力资本投资滞后项 -5.478***
(-6.639)-13.71***
(-98.3)-10.48***
(-62.16)常数项 14, 438***
(8.67)17, 468***
(6.72)3, 459***
(46.49)15, 184***
(23.67)48, 318***
(98.7)4, 728***
(5.381)R2 0.943 0.938 — — — — AR(1) — — 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.042 AR(2) — — 0.228 0.301 0.658 0.362 Hansen test — — 0.771 0.769 0.883 0.901 说明：人力资本存量根据终身收入法计算，数据来源于中央财经大学中国人力资本与劳动经济研究中心主页，其计算方法参见李海峥等(2010)[16]。
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