Spatial Differentiation and Promotion Potential of Agricultural Eco-efficiency in China
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摘要: 采用全局超效率SBM模型测算2001—2015年中国30个省市自治区的农业生态效率，并考察了中国农业生态效率的空间分异与提升潜力。研究发现：中国的农业生态效率普遍偏低，但整体呈持续上升趋势；各地区的农业生态效率呈“东西高、中部低”的空间格局和“高高集聚、低低集聚”的分布形态；三大地区分层方式对于农业生态效率空间分异的解释程度不足30%，要素效率等级分层方式对于空间分异的解释程度超过了60%；过多的农机动力、播种面积投入以及过量的农业碳排放是农业生态低效率的重要原因。因此，可以通过避免农机动力浪费、推进土地轮作休耕、加强农业碳排放管控等方式，协同提升区域农业生态效率。Abstract: The global super-efficient SBM model was used to measure the agricultural ecological efficiency of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2015, and to examine the spatial differentiation and potential for improvement of agricultural ecological efficiency in China. The results show that the agricultural eco-efficiency in China is generally low, but it is on the rise on the whole; the agricultural eco-efficiency of the eastern and western regions is higher than that of the central region, and the polarization characteristics become more obvious; the degree of the stratification of the three regions for the spatial differentiation of agricultural eco-efficiency is less than 30%, and the degree of the stratification of factor efficiency hierarchy for the spatial differentiation is more than 60%; excessive input of agricultural machinery power and planting area, and excessive agricultural carbon emissions are the important causes for agricultural ecological inefficiency. Therefore, regional agricultural eco-efficiency can be synergically enhanced by avoiding waste of agricultural machinery power, promoting land rotation and fallowing, and strengthening the control of agricultural carbon emission.
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表 1 2001—2015年全国及三大区域投入产出指标的描述性统计
变量 平均值 平均增长率(%) 全国 东部 中部 西部 全国 东部 中部 西部 农膜 6.474 7.570 6.726 5.962 4.812 3.128 3.288 6.438 农药 5.228 5.905 8.323 2.605 2.496 0.814 3.090 4.576 机械 1 399.843 1 511.950 2 108.614 961.074 4.955 3.172 5.595 6.749 用水 66.926 52.632 73.554 76.219 -0.094 -1.006 0.103 0.396 化肥 169.293 161.098 253.404 127.665 2.667 0.826 2.964 4.041 能源 107.779 111.656 135.935 93.056 3.314 2.328 3.006 4.359 劳动力 551.851 409.131 732.432 533.526 -1.923 -2.497 -2.045 -1.484 土地 5 247.735 3 894.751 8 026.885 4 640.443 0.407 -0.400 0.668 0.981 总产出 626.447 732.238 810.663 462.229 4.328 3.857 4.531 5.213 碳排放 1 332.226 1 065.169 2 355.269 913.453 1.641 0.431 2.697 1.580 总氮 16.478 21.749 17.891 10.714 1.312 -0.015 1.937 3.139 总磷 1.004 0.928 1.754 0.605 3.061 1.182 3.251 3.993 
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表 2 三大地区分层方式对中国农业生态效率及各要素效率空间分异的驱动力
因变量 十五 十一五 十二五 全时期 农业生态效率 0.224**
(0.046)0.213*
(0.054)0.326**
(0.011)0.269**
(0.024)农膜利用效率 0.095
(0.269)0.010
(0.893)0.150
(0.212)0.027
(0.706)农药利用效率 0.326***
(0.007)0.324***
(0.007)0.144
(0.187)0.305***
(0.008)农业机械利用效率 0.197*
(0.072)0.221*
(0.054)0.298**
(0.018)0.243**
(0.038)农业用水效率 0.014
(0.838)0.093
(0.308)0.201*
(0.083)0.093
(0.317)化肥利用效率 0.278**
(0.018)0.272**
(0.021)0.358***
(0.005)0.334***
(0.008)能源利用效率 0.049
(0.523)0.050
(0.510)0.184*
(0.077)0.068
(0.390)劳动力投入效率 0.256**
(0.032)0.233**
(0.047)0.267**
(0.030)0.288**
(0.022)土地利用效率 0.229**
(0.049)0.287**
(0.023)0.357***
(0.008)0.324**
(0.013)二氧化碳排放效率 0.251**
(0.037)0.286**
(0.023)0.409***
(0.003)0.338***
(0.010)总氮排放效率 0.234**
(0.056)0.118
(0.216)0.238**
(0.034)0.167
(0.110)总磷排放 0.242**
(0.034)0.258**
(0.029)0.382***
(0.004)0.330***
(0.009)注：括号内为P值，用于检验q值是否显著。*、**、***分别表示在1%、5%、10%水平下显著。表 3同。
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表 3 各要素效率等级分层方式对中国农业生态效率空间分异的驱动力(q值)
驱动因子 十五 十一五 十二五 全时期 农膜 0.304**
(0.029)0.390***
(0.006)0.402***
(0.006)0.440***
(0.002)农药 0.309***
(0.007)0.281**
(0.015)0.588***
(0.000)0.369***
(0.003)农业机械 0.758***
(0.000)0.793***
(0.000)0.875***
(0.000)0.821***
(0.000)用水 0.370
(0.190)0.398**
(0.017)0.573***
(0.000)0.471**
(0.020)化肥 0.730***
(0.000)0.683***
(0.000)0.619***
(0.000)0.593***
(0.002)能源 0.256*
(0.087)0.187*
(0.076)0.538***
(0.000)0.238**
(0.037)劳动力 0.562
(0.108)0.595***
(0.006)0.578***
(0.000)0.538**
(0.013)土地 0.641*
(0.094)0.762***
(0.000)0.826***
(0.000)0.737***
(0.004)碳排放 0.562***
(0.010)0.621**
(0.021)0.751***
(0.000)0.662***
(0.003)总氮 0.256*
(0.087)0.320
(0.152)0.321**
(0.029)0.299*
(0.099)总磷 0.378**
(0.018)0.449**
(0.028)0.748***
(0.000)0.412**
(0.028)
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表 4 全国及三大地区农业生态效率的提升潜力及各要素无效率省份的占比
% 地区 提升潜力 无效率省份的占比 东部 中部 西部 全国 东部 中部 西部 全国 农膜 0.967 2.480 1.406 1.532 48.000 65.556 56.364 58.222 农药 0.475 1.697 0.445 0.790 34.667 68.889 29.697 46.222 农机 2.101 4.239 2.453 2.800 70.667 97.778 83.636 83.778 用水 1.521 2.195 2.546 2.076 74.000 74.444 80.000 78.889 化肥 1.501 3.040 1.960 2.080 76.667 97.778 86.667 86.889 能源 0.824 1.954 1.140 1.241 40.000 45.556 52.121 51.556 劳动力 1.620 3.124 3.101 2.564 70.667 92.222 86.061 83.556 土地 2.005 3.933 3.122 2.929 74.667 97.778 86.667 86.222 碳排放 4.051 8.248 5.082 5.548 74.667 97.778 78.788 83.333 总氮 4.687 5.847 2.707 4.270 76.667 77.778 63.636 74.444 总磷 2.213 5.863 2.895 3.436 48.000 93.333 79.394 73.778 投入产出平均 1.997 3.875 2.442 2.661 62.606 82.626 71.185 73.354 投入平均 1.377 2.833 2.022 2.002 61.167 80.000 70.152 71.917 产出平均 3.650 6.653 3.561 4.418 66.444 89.630 73.939 77.185
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