The Mechanism and Effect of Population Aging on Various Savings Rates
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摘要: 以中国1992—2017年的数据为样本, 运用生命周期等理论, 采用VAR模型考察人口老龄化对居民储蓄率、企业储蓄率和政府储蓄率的影响。实证结果表明: 人口老龄化对企业储蓄率的影响最大, 影响效应先负后正; 对政府储蓄率的影响次之, 影响效应先正后负; 对居民储蓄率的影响最小, 影响效应先负后正。为应对人口老龄化对各类储蓄率的不利影响, 应培养创新型人才, 推动产业结构升级; 完善养老保险保障, 建立老年金融体系; 发展银发产业, 实行弹性退休制度。Abstract: Taking the data of China from 1992 to 2017 as a sample, and using the life cycle theory, this study employs the VAR model to investigate the impact of population aging on household savings rate, corporate savings rate and government savings rate. The empirical results show that: the aging of the population has the greatest impact on the corporate savings rate, with the impact being first negative then positive, and secondary impact on the government savings rate, with a positive effect followed by a negative effect, and the least impact on the household savings rate, with the effect being first positive then negative. Therefore, in order to cope with the impact of population aging on various savings rates, it is recommended to implement the cultivation of innovative talents, industrial structure upgrading, improve endowment insurance, establish an old-age financial system, develop a silver-haired industry and an elastic retirement system.
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Key words:
- population ageing /
- savings rate /
- household savings rate /
- corporate savings rate /
- government savings rate /
- life cycle /
- savings
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表 1 中国人口总数、年龄构成与抚养比
万人，岁，% 年份 年末常
住人口年龄构成 抚养比 0-14岁 15-64岁 65岁及以上 老年抚养比 少儿抚养比 老少比 1964 70 499.00 40.70 55.70 3.60 6.46 73.07 8.84 1982 101 654.00 33.60 61.50 4.90 7.97 54.63 14.59 1990 114 333.00 27.70 66.70 5.60 8.40 41.53 20.23 2000 126 743.00 22.90 70.10 7.00 9.92 32.63 30.4 2002 128 453.00 22.40 70.30 7.30 10.38 31.86 32.58 2005 130 756.00 20.30 72.00 7.70 10.67 28.14 37.92 2007 132 129.00 19.40 72.50 8.10 11.10 26.78 44.45 2010 134 091.00 16.60 74.50 8.90 11.60 22.27 52.09 2011 134 735.00 16.50 74.40 9.10 11.90 22.10 53.85 2012 135 404.00 16.50 74.10 9.40 12.25 22.20 55.18 2013 136 072.00 16.40 73.90 9.70 12.66 22.20 57.03 2014 136 782.00 16.49 73.41 10.10 13.84 22.45 61.65 2015 137 462.00 16.52 73.00 10.48 13.69 22.63 60.49 2016 138 271.00 16.64 72.50 10.86 14.33 22.95 62.44 2017 139 008.00 16.78 71.80 11.42 14.96 23.39 63.96 2018 139 538.00 16.86 71.20 11.94 16.77 23.68 70.82 注：表中数据根据Wind数据库整理得出。 
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表 2 变量的描述性统计
变量 变量含义 均值 标准差 最大值 最小值 被解释变量 HSR 居民储蓄率 0.216 96 0.020 631 0.254 31 0.168 975 ESR 企业储蓄率 0.185 959 0.031 001 0.227 432 0.117 011 GSR 政府储蓄率 0.041 065 0.019 833 0.061 16 -0.013 675 解释变量 OADR 老年抚养比 0.112 275 0.017 327 0.158 581 0.092 268 CDR 少儿抚养比 0.302 311 0.068 741 0.416 665 0.221 015 Ln GDP GDP的对数 12.131 26 0.960 835 13.617 98 10.210 77 RATE 名义利率 0.040 023 0.029 192 0.109 8 0.015 INFLATION CPI增长率 -0.000 258 0.036 01 0.133 271 -0.074 811 注：表中数据根据国家统计局公布的数据及Wind数据库整理得出。
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表 3 变量的单位根检验
变量 p值 统计量 临界值 结论 CDR 0.038 4 -2.059 112 -2.588 53 接受 LNGDP 0.032 9 -3.622 977 -4.053 392 接受 RATE 0.006 2 -2.759 366 -2.588 53 接受 INFLATION 0.000 7 -3.450 111 -2.590 622 接受 D(HSR) 0.002 5 -3.069 999 -2.589 531 接受 D(ESR) 0.000 1 -4.102 169 -2.588 53 接受 D(GSR) 0.000 3 -3.697 047 -2.588 53 接受 D(OADR) 0.030 2 -3.655 744 -4.053 392 接受 注：D(HSR)、D(ESR)、D(GSR)和D(OADR)分别表示HSR、ESR、GSR和OADR的一阶差分；临界值是指在1%的显著性水平下得到的ADF值。
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表 4 居民储蓄率的方差分解
Period S.E. D(HSR) D(OADR) CDR LNGDP RATE INFLATION 1 0.002 547 100 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.003 156 99.570 65 0.045 398 0.026 532 0.038 363 0.277 753 0.041 299 3 0.003 278 98.114 71 0.483 291 0.148 594 0.166 35 0.799 592 0.287 464 4 0.003 315 96.149 62 1.031 115 0.355 905 0.431 992 1.289 14 0.742 227 7 0.003 373 93.024 69 1.276 608 0.641 949 1.488 715 1.936 264 1.631 777 10 0.003 396 91.743 72 1.901 647 0.809 872 1.666 096 2.222 77 1.655 899 12 0.003 413 90.859 43 2.160 768 1.159 221 1.725741 2.448 612 1.646 231 17 0.003 447 89.11724 2.214 267 1.817 541 2.292 614 2.940 847 1.617 489 18 0.003 451 88.902 03 2.208 797 1.893 907 2.380 806 3.000 05 1.614 408 20 0.003 458 88.575 13 2.200 287 2.018 521 2.512 455 3.084 196 1.609411 22 0.003 462 88.352 41 2.194 482 2.113 992 2.600 166 3.133 372 1.605 572 24 0.003 465 88.206 79 2.190 783 2.182 906 2.658 312 3.158 245 1.602 962 29 0.003 468 88.055 48 2.188 056 2.262 406 2.724 687 3.168 881 1.600 49
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表 5 企业储蓄率的方差分解
Period S.E. D(ESR) D(OADR) CDR LNGDP RATE INFLATION 1 0.002 349 100 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.002 864 98.898 16 0.066 145 0.013 521 0.527 057 0.062 031 0.433 085 3 0.003 017 95.758 36 1.587 19 0.139 678 1.203 587 0.075 8 1.235 382 4 0.003 094 91.563 88 4.581 771 0.485 529 1.450 505 0.072 16 1.846 155 5 0.003 161 87.746 67 7.696 648 1.034 205 1.402 203 0.076 012 2.044 267 6 0.003 224 84.623 07 10.161 12 1.696 08 1.421 705 0.089 316 2.008 702 7 0.003 281 81.987 02 11.913 83 2.403 825 1.651 232 0.103 785 1.940 301 8 0.003 333 79.669 27 13.135 53 3.138 393 2.041 916 0.113 173 1.901 711 9 0.003 381 77.595 37 14.000 28 3.911 704 2.502 744 0.116 662 1.873 235 10 0.003 425 75.716 91 14.616 44 4.740 943 2.974 719 0.116 399 1.834 59 11 0.003 468 73.990 32 15.040 03 5.629 493 3.435 825 0.114 541 1.789 789 12 0.003 51 72.389 67 15.303 71 6.559 19 3.883 289 0.112 229 1.751 91 15 0.003 62 68.399 18 15.464 15 9.210 846 5.125 266 0.105 738 1.694 824 21 0.003 729 64.562 38 15.355 63 11.898 31 6.326 509 0.243 644 1.613 525 25 0.003 758 63.665 46 15.468 94 12.161 78 6.320 188 0.793 961 1.589 673
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表 6 政府储蓄率的方差分解
Period S.E. D(GSR) D(OADR) CDR LNGDP RATE INFLATION 1 0.002 498 100 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.003 096 99.171 76 0.169 985 0.021 62 0.158 079 0.258 46 0.220 1 3 0.003 277 97.318 96 0.392 949 0.127 909 0.266 274 0.552 643 1.341 262 5 0.003 394 92.016 02 0.50 5801 0.340 404 0.343 395 0.625 058 6.169 318 7 0.003 507 87.567 97 0.792 488 0.420 701 1.057 986 0.869 387 9.291 469 9 0.003 643 84.188 9 1.997 583 1.499 505 1.479 255 1.444 072 9.390 685 10 0.003 711 82.641 96 2.655 224 2.418 631 1.461 965 1.735 183 9.087 039 11 0.003 772 81.218 15 3.165 558 3.384 018 1.414 957 2.020 419 8.796 901 14 0.003 895 78.02 3.742 653 5.466 974 1.474 905 3.040 916 8.254 553 17 0.003 956 75.946 81 3.737 443 6.127 872 1.503 531 4.604 292 8.080 052 20 0.004 006 74.056 52 3.666 524 6.124 427 1.515 614 6.611 795 8.025 116
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