A Study of the Impact of Restrictive Measures on Cross-border Data Flow on the Export Technical Complexity of Digital Trade
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摘要: 基于欧洲政治经济研究中心(ECIPE)的数字贸易限制指数，针对44个国家的数据跨境流动限制性措施与该国数字贸易出口技术复杂度的相关性进行经验研究。结果表明：一国采取数据跨境流动限制性措施会抑制该国出口技术复杂度的提升；与发达经济体相比，发展中经济体实施数据跨境流动限制性措施对其出口技术复杂度的负面影响更显著；与其他部门相比，数据跨境流动限制性措施对金融服务和研究、开发服务等部门的出口技术复杂度的抑制效果更加明显。Abstract: Based on the ECIPE Digital Trade Restrictiveness Index, this paper conducts empirical research on the correlation between restrictive measures on cross-border data flow and the technical complexity of their export digital trade in 44 countries. The results indicate that restrictive measures taken by a country on cross-border data flow will restrain the upgrading of technical complexity of a country's export; compared with developed economies, the restrictive measures on cross-border data flow implemented by developing economies have a more significant negative impact on their technical complexity of export; compared with other sectors, the restrictive measures on cross-border data flow have a more inhibitory effect on export technical complexity of export sectors such as financial services and research and development services. Based on the results of this empirical research, some relevant policy recommendations are given.
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表 1 基准回归和稳健性检验
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) DI(DI*) -0.500 5** -0.819 8** -0.520 7* -0.438 8* -0.982 4*** (-2.516 9) (-2.237 3) (-1.865 7) (-1.945 0) (-3.133 4) open 1.854 5** 5.097 8*** 1.866 6* 1.861 3* 2.079 8** (1.999 8) (4.207 4) (1.939 7) (1.935 2) (2.150 0) urban -0.013 3** -0.021 7** -0.012 9** -0.012 8** -0.015 6** (-2.058 4) (-2.277 0) (-2.003 7) (-1.990 5) (-2.252 4) lngdp 0.555 7 2.400 2*** 0.573 4 0.572 2 0.635 3 (0.913 2) (3.626 9) (0.886 2) (0.883 3) (1.029 6) lnpeople -0.505 1 -1.634 6*** -0.519 4 -0.519 8 -0.499 9 (-1.404 4) (-3.912 9) (-1.387 0) (-1.388 5) (-1.414 2) lnfdi 0.107 2 0.066 7 0.114 9 0.115 7 0.061 0 (1.173 1) (0.384 9) (1.227 7) (1.229 9) (0.645 6) lngoodex 0.139 8 -0.549 4* 0.117 2 0.116 7 0.151 2 (0.503 3) (-1.728 6) (0.392 5) (0.391 3) (0.559 7) Kleibergen-Paaprk LM statistic 42.103 [0.00] Kleibergen-Paaprk Wald F statistic 133.252 {19.93} DWH 4.808 92 [0.028 3] Hansen-Overid J 1.669 [0.196 4] 常数项 4.527 9*** 0.512 8 4.556 4*** 4.574 0*** 4.051 6*** (3.569 2) (0.335 9) (3.374 3) (3.376 1) (3.022 4) 固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 观测值 365 390 355 355 365 R2 0.518 7 0.386 6 0.510 9 0.510 7 0.510 7 注：括号内数值为纠正了异方差后的t统计量；中括号数值为相应统计量的P值；大括号内的值为Stock-Yogo检验10%水平上的临界值；*、* *和* * *分别表示在10%、5%和1%的水平上显著；回归均采用部门层面固定效应。 
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表 2 OFDI和进口技术复杂度对出口技术复杂度的中介效应
变量 (1)lnES (2)lnOFDI (3)lnES (4)lnES (5)lnIS (6)lnES DI -0.500 5** -0.564 5*** -0.358 7* -0.500 5** -0.425 7** -0.344 8* (-2.516 9) (-4.596 4) (-1.905 9) (-2.516 9) (-2.425 0) (-1.748 5) lngdp 0.555 7 1.090 0*** 0.285 4 0.555 7 0.02 0.565 2 (0.913 2) (3.289 6) (0.504 6) (0.913 2) (0.051 9) (1.055 2) lnpopu -0.505 1 -0.398 0* -0.430 3 -0.505 1 -0.096 6 -0.439 6 (-1.404 4) (-1.823 6) (-1.264 9) (-1.404 4) (-0.410 3) (-1.383 3) open 1.854 5** 1.868 5** 1.112 8 1.854 5** -0.349 4 2.112 7** (1.999 8) (2.427 9) (1.338 9) (1.999 8) (-0.471 1) (2.411 5) lnfdi 0.107 2 0.116 2 0.024 3 0.107 2 -0.030 9 0.053 7 (1.173 1) (1.308 2) (0.244 9) (1.173 1) (-0.384 9) (0.547 7) lngoodex 0.139 8 0.653 6*** -0.158 0.139 8 0.200 1 0.071 7 (0.503 3) (4.198 9) (-0.525 5) (0.503 3) (1.111) (0.282 6) urban -0.013 3** 0.028 8*** -0.025 9*** -0.013 3** -0.008 3* -0.010 9* (-2.058 4) (6.361) (-3.262 9) (-2.058 4) (-1.716 5) (-1.763 6) lnOFDI 0.383 6*** (4.290 4) lnIS 0.581 4*** (4.817 1) 常数项 4.527 9*** -13.090 3*** 9.434 5*** 4.527 9*** 8.434 5*** -0.455 1 (3.569 2) (-18.009 5) (6.831 5) (3.569 2) (8.809 5) (-0.270 4) 固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 观测值 365 350 331 365 310 310 R2 0.518 7 0.843 6 0.549 1 0.518 7 0.593 8 0.577 注：括号内数值为纠正了异方差后的t统计量；*、* *和* * *分别表示在10%、5%和1%的水平上显著；回归均采用部门层面固定效应。表 3同。
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表 3 对不同类型经济体的异质性考察
变量 发展中经济体 发达经济体 DI -1.000 4*** 0.242 1 (-2.735 8) (0.924 0) 固定控制变量 是 是 固定效应 是 是 观测值 171 194 R2 0.461 3 0.726 6
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表 4 部门①出口技术复杂度的异质性考察
变量 运输 保险 金融 知识产权 R & D 专业 技术 DI 0.604 8** -0.658 0 -0.510 8** -1.112 6 -2.028 1* -1.304 8 -0.320 6 (2.480 5) (-0.768 2) (-2.405 0) (-1.423 8) (-1.735 3) (-1.192 6) (-0.587 5) open 1.879 3** -4.487 2* -0.227 0 5.643 0* 2.591 1 4.791 7 4.259 0 (2.268 1) (-1.797 7) (-0.160 1) (1.915 3) (0.751 7) (1.169 1) (1.108 9) urban 0.001 4 -0.006 4 -0.014 1 0.025 3 -0.014 2 -0.039 5 -0.014 3 (0.213 9) (-0.406 9) (-1.352 0) (1.334 5) (-0.738 6) (-1.352 1) (-0.529 7) lngdp 0.919 7** -0.423 3 1.388 3** 0.952 8 0.671 4 1.668 2 2.040 8 (2.166 1) (-0.340 5) (2.276 6) (0.472 1) (0.399 6) (0.521 0) (0.666 4) lnpeople -0.470 1 -0.075 2 -1.101 4*** -0.734 1 -0.697 4 -0.990 4 -1.137 2 (-1.689 4) (-0.109 9) (-2.845 5) (-0.628 1) (-0.670 0) (-0.513 0) (-0.635 6) lnfdi -0.437 1*** 0.106 3 0.104 1 -0.102 4 0.197 1 0.275 9 -0.188 6 (-4.354 4) (0.326 9) (0.483 8) (-0.409 6) (0.787 5) (1.694 3) (-0.757 0) lngoodex -0.228 7 1.064 7 -0.101 2 0.806 3 0.265 4 -0.778 7 -0.654 7 (-1.321 0) (1.669 5) (-0.270 1) (0.838 4) (0.322 0) (-0.533 1) (-0.487 6) 常数项 7.105 3*** 0.127 2 1.489 3 -9.948 9** 0.981 4 4.331 8 1.879 1 (5.429 9) (0.037 6) (0.772 4) (-2.706 2) (0.264 3) (0.769 3) (0.351 2) 观测值 39 39 39 39 34 35 36 R2 0.554 0 0.512 1 0.429 7 0.619 2 0.358 5 0.207 7 0.127 5 注：括号内数值为纠正了异方差后的t统计量；*、* *和* * *分别表示在10%、5%和1%的水平上显著。
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