The Impact of Smog on Inbound Tourism in China from the Perspective of Heterogeneity of Tourists'Risk Perception
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摘要: 基于2011—2017年我国省级面板数据, 以二氧化硫、氮氧化物和烟粉尘三种大气污染物的排放强度作为雾霾污染的测度指标, 在风险感知理论视角下构建雾霾影响入境旅游规模的回归模型, 运用双向固定效应模型进行实证分析, 发现雾霾已对我国入境旅游规模产生了较为明显的负向影响, 但对港澳台游客规模的负向影响不明显, 表明外国游客市场对雾霾污染更敏感, 即雾霾影响入境旅游的游客风险感知具有异质性特征。进一步从不同污染程度区域考察风险感知的异质性, 发现污染更为严重的北方地区其雾霾的负向影响较南方地区显著, 各地区雾霾对外国游客规模的负向效应均显著高于对港澳台游客规模的负向效应, 再次证明外国游客对雾霾风险的感知更为强烈。因而, 加大雾霾污染治理尤其是对严重污染地区的治理, 根据游客风险感知的异质性特征积极打造“中国蓝”形象, 加强国际合作并优化旅游综合体系等, 可降低入境游客的雾霾风险感知, 提升我国入境旅游的吸引力。Abstract: Based on China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2017, the paper employs the emission intensity of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and smoke dust as the measurement index of smog pollution constructs regression model of impact of smog on inbound tourism scale from the perspective of risk perception theory, and makes empirical analysis using Two-way Fixed Effect Model. The results show that smog has significantly negative impact on the scale of inbound tourism in China. Judging from the categories of tourists, the negative impact of smog on the scale of foreign tourists is significant, while the negative impact on the scale of tourists from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is not obvious, indicating that the foreign tourist market is more sensitive to smog pollution, and there is heterogeneity in tourists' perception for smog affecting inbound tourism. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of risk perception is examined from different regions with different pollution levels. The negative impact of smog in the more polluted northern regions on inbound tourism is significantly greater than that in the southern regions. On this basis, the negative impact of smog in the southern and northern regions on the scale of foreign tourists is significantly greater than that of tourists from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. This further proves that foreign tourists have stronger perception of smog risk than tourists from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Therefore, effective ways such as strengthening the control of smog pollution, especially in heavily polluted areas, and taking measures to create the image of "China Blue", strengthening international regional cooperation, and optimizing the comprehensive tourism system according to the heterogeneity of tourists' preferences can be taken to reduce tourists ' perception of smog risk and enhance the attractiveness of China's inbound tourism.
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Key words:
- smog environmental pollution /
- inbound tourism /
- risk perception /
- tourist /
- air quality /
- Hong Kong
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图 2 对空气污染敏感和不敏感的旅游者的旅游需求—空气污染无差异曲线对比
Ⅱ′——对空气污染不敏感的旅游者的旅游需求—空气污染无差异曲线
SS′——对空气污染敏感的旅游者的旅游需求—空气污染无差异曲线表 1 变量的描述性统计
变量名称 变量内涵及单位 观测值 均值 标准误 最小值 最大值 tourist 入境旅游规模(万人次) 217 334.447 601.357 2 365 5 wtourist 外国游客规模(万人次) 217 180.456 180.050 1 909 gtourist 港澳台游客规模(万人次) 217 153.991 462.621 1 279 0 ihaze 二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟粉尘排放总量强度(吨/亿元) 217 105.047 88.227 6.384 515.658 PM2.5 细颗粒物(微克/立方米) 186 32.443 17.147 3.051 81.790 open 对外开放水平(进出口总额/GDP) 217 0.275 0.316 0.017 1.548 resource 旅游资源条件(家) 217 252.871 173.551 29 116 2 hotel 住宿条件(家) 217 595.111 429.693 42 225 9 catering 餐饮条件(家) 217 817.756 734.738 7 314 3 transport 交通条件(公里/百平方公里) 217 92.152 52.515 5.179 219.048 
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表 2 基于游客类别的雾霾对入境旅游影响的回归结果
变量 入境旅游规模 外国游客规模 港澳台游客规模 模型1 模型2 模型3 模型4 模型5 模型6 Lnihaze -0.145*
(0.077)-0.366**
(0.149)-0.212***
(0.079)-0.445***
(0.157)0.059
(0.092)-0.049
(0.183)open 0.587**
(0.253)0.059
(0.233)0.606**
(0.259)0.120
(0.247)0.328
(0.303)-0.294
(0.287)lnta -0.068
(0.103)0.201*
(0.107)-0.164
(0.105)0.086
(0.113)0.133
(0.123)0.432***
(0.132)lnhotel -0.506
(0.311)-0.367
(0.272)-0.556*
(0.318)-0.435
(0.287)-0.439
(0.373)-0.231
(0.334)lncatering 0.207
(0.149)0.219*
(0.129)0.295*
(0.153)0.308**
(0.136)0.071
(0.179)0.074
(0.158)lntransport 0.886*
(0.463)2.949***
(0.502)0.671
(0.474)2.632***
(0.531)1.915***
(0.555)4.050***
(0.618)常数项 3.868*
(2.083)-5.651**
(2.212)4.904**
(2.133)-3.950*
(2.338)-3.274
(2.496)-14.13***
(2.722)地区固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 时间固定效应 是 是 是 观测值 217 217 217 217 217 217 拟合优度 0.098 0.368 0.105 0.332 0.134 0.361 注：***、**、*分别表示在1%、5%和10%的置信水平上显著，括号中为标准误差。下表同。
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表 3 雾霾对入境旅游影响的分区域异质性回归结果
变量 入境旅游规模 外国游客规模 港澳台游客规模 模型1
(北方)模型2
(南方)模型3
(北方)模型4
(南方)模型5
(北方)模型6
(南方)Lnihaze -0.442**
(0.198)-0.007
(0.247)-0.464**
(0.206)-0.147
(0.266)-0.413
(0.249)0.578*
(0.301)open -0.326
(0.313)0.477
(0.420)-0.283
(0.326)0.430
(0.453)-0.271
(0.394)0.135
(0.512)lnta 0.340**
(0.148)0.027
(0.170)0.222
(0.154)-0.073
(0.183)0.504***
(0.187)0.205
(0.207)lnhotel -0.181
(0.330)-0.469
(0.534)-0.078
(0.344)-0.835
(0.576)-0.600
(0.416)0.397
(0.651)lncatering 0.307*
(0.179)0.093
(0.250)0.271
(0.187)0.344
(0.270)0.371
(0.226)-0.343
(0.305)lntransport 4.163***
(0.738)1.780**
(0.754)3.850***
(0.767)1.670**
(0.813)4.816***
(0.929)2.623***
(0.919)常数项 -12.11***
(3.347)-0.183
(3.114)-10.84***
(3.481)1.607
(3.358)-15.38***
(4.216)-11.02***
(3.793)地区固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 时间固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 观测值 105 112 105 112 105 112 省区数量 15 16 15 16 15 16 拟合优度 0.493 0.366 0.449 0.342 0.425 0.410
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表 4 稳健性检验回归结果
变量 入境旅游规模 外国游客规模 港澳台游客规模 模型1 模型2 模型3 模型4 模型5 模型6 Lnpm2.5 -0.669***
(0.163)-0.254
(0.168)-0.654***
(0.168)-0.239
(0.180)-0.679***
(0.205)-0.249
(0.206)open 0.322
(0.250)-0.185
(0.254)0.249
(0.259)-0.123
(0.273)0.368
(0.315)-0.507
(0.313)lnta -0.022
(0.099)0.202*
(0.114)-0.086
(0.103)0.066
(0.122)0.076
(0.125)0.503***
(0.140)lnhotel -0.520
(0.351)-0.240
(0.313)-0.531
(0.362)-0.262
(0.335)-0.445
(0.440)-0.128
(0.385)lncatering 0.169
(0.171)0.250
(0.152)0.280
(0.176)0.357**
(0.163)-0.053
(0.214)0.035
(0.188)lntransport 0.987**
(0.495)3.049***
(0.597)0.833
(0.511)2.484***
(0.641)1.779***
(0.622)4.919***
(0.735)常数项 5.155***
(1.700)-5.211*
(2.667)5.061***
(1.755)-5.829**
(2.799)0.878
(2.135)-17.84***
(3.212)地区固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 时间固定效应 是 是 是 观测值 186 186 186 186 186 186 拟合优度 0.137 0.361 0.134 0.308 0.149 0.394
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