Quality Upgrading of Imported Intermediate Products and Global Value Chain Climbing of Manufacturing Industry
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摘要: 中国处于全球价值链的中低端, 贸易规模与贸易收益严重不对称, 因而有效提升在国际分工中的获利水平和在全球价值链中的地位, 是我国当前国际贸易研究的重要命题。借鉴相关理论模型, 采用中国微观企业数据, 实证分析进口中间品质量对制造业全球价值链攀升的影响。结果表明: 进口中间品质量升级对制造业全球价值链地位存在正负两方面的影响, 但总体表现为促进作用; 具体来看, 对公有企业的促进作用大于外资企业和私营企业, 对一般贸易企业的促进作用大于加工贸易企业; 动态来看, 进口中间品质量升级对制造业全球价值链攀升的促进作用会逐渐增大。因而应鼓励企业进口高质量的中间品, 重视引进吸收基础上的创新, 努力营造公平的竞争环境, 从整体上提高中国的技术创新水平, 以实现中国制造业全球价值链的攀升。Abstract: China is at the middle and low end of the global value chain, and the scale of trade is seriously asymmetry with trade gains. Effective improvement of the level of profitability in the international division of labor and its position in the global value chain is an important proposition in current international trade research. Based on related theoretical models, and Chinese micro-enterprises data, empirical analyses are made on the impact of imported intermediate quality on the global value chain of manufacturing. The results show that the upgrade of imported intermediate quality has positive and negative effects on the status of the manufacturing global value chain, but the overall performance is a promotion; specifically, the promotion of public enterprises is greater than that of foreign-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and the promotion effect on general enterprises is greater than that of processing trade enterprises; from a dynamic point of view, the promotion effect of the upgrading of imported intermediate quality on the rising global value chain of the manufacturing industry will gradually be strengthened. Therefore, enterprises should be encouraged to import high-quality intermediate products, pay attention to innovation on the basis of absorption, strive to create a fair competitive environment, and improve China's technological innovation level as a whole to realize the ascent of China's manufacturing global value chain.
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表 1 投入产出模型
变量 国家 中间使用 最终使用 总产出 s r t s r t 中间投入 s Zss Zsr Zst Yss Ysr Yst Xs r Zrs Zrr Zrt Yrs Yrr Yrt Xr t Zts Ztr Ztt Yts Ytr Ytt Xt 增加值 VAs VAr VAt 总投入 (Xs)′ (Xr)′ (Xt)′ … 注：s、r和t分别代表三个国家；Z和Y分别代表一国产品被另外两国用作中间投入品和最终使用品；VAs和Xs分别表示S国的增加值和产出，其余类似；上标为转置，假设各国部门数都为n，则Z为n×n的矩阵，X和Y为n×1的列向量，V为1×n的行向量。 
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表 2 变量的描述性统计
变量 样本数 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值 qualityikt 2 394 738 -0.001 8 0.415 8 -3.997 2 3.048 3 GVCkt 2 401 080 0.085 1 0.163 0 -0.197 0 0.588 4 lnageikt 2 388 814 2.129 1 0.707 2 0.000 0 7.603 9 lnsizeikt 2 385 986 5.771 9 1.254 0 0.000 0 12.200 9 lntfpikt 2 369 333 1.474 1 0.229 3 -4.030 1 2.437 8 VSkt 2 401 080 0.118 6 0.030 4 0.062 3 0.222 4 VS1kt 2 401 080 0.071 4 0.063 8 0.000 0 0.681 0 lnnewpikt 1 714 169 0.053 1 0.151 7 0.000 0 1.411 1 lnImportikt 2 402 402 11.088 1 2.648 3 0.000 0 23.494 6 注：根据相应数据库整理计算得出。
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表 3 基准回归结果
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) qualityikt 0.020 4*** 0.045 7*** 0.017 5*** 0.018 3*** 0.019 0*** (84.42) (179.71) (72.21) (75.90) (79.16) lntfpikt 0.077 9*** 0.021 9*** 0.021 0*** 0.010 8*** (166.43) (31.81) (29.03) (14.56) lnageikt -0.003 0*** 0.015 7*** 0.017 5*** -0.001 8*** (-19.45) (74.95) (78.21) (-6.49) lnsizeikt 0.012 6*** 0.000 2 -0.000 1 0.000 4** (142.49) (1.36) (-0.08) (2.24) 常数项 0.018 1 -0.096 9*** 0.017 5*** -0.016 2*** -0.002 6 (1.10) (-103.11) (12.14) (-5.11) (-0.80) 企业固定效应 Yes No Yes Yes Yes 行业固定效应 Yes No No Yes Yes 年度固定效应 Yes No No No Yes R2 0.709 3 0.035 8 0.692 2 0.699 8 0.703 7 观测值 2 390 119 2 347 395 2 344 149 2 344 149 2 344 149 注：括号内为回归系数的t值；***、**和*分别表示1%、5%和10%的显著性水平。表 4-7同。
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表 4 中介效应检验结果
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) lnImportikt GVCkt lnnewpikt GVCkt qualityikt 4.954 6***
(1 620.84)0.000 7***
(2.88)lnnewpikt 0.013 5***
(14.10)lnImportikt -0.003 9***
(-110.37)常数项 10.326 2***
(250.84)0.036 1***
(11.13)-0.011 8**
(-1.99)0.084 8***
(11.63)控制变量 Yes Yes Yes Yes 企业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes 行业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes 年度固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.817 5 0.703 9 0.778 1 0.702 6 观测值 2 345 460 2 351 657 1 693 471 1 698 237
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表 5 不同企业性质和贸易方式的回归结果
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 公有制企业 私营企业 外资企业 一般贸易 加工贸易 qualityikt 0.044 6***
(60.58)0.013 3***
(21.33)0.015 5***
(48.11)0.026 3***
(79.26)0.002 2***
(6.18)lntfpikt 0.015 9***
(6.15)0.021 9***
(11.34)0.010 0***
(10.03)0.013 9***
(12.48)0.002 7***
(2.56)lnageikt 0.002 5***
(3.31)0.008 1***
(11.52)-0.005 2***
(-12.89)-0.001 9***
(-4.83)-0.000 8*
(-1.82)lnsizeikt -0.001 8***
(-3.44)-0.001 7***
(-3.97)0.000 8***
(3.42)-0.000 6***
(-2.47)0.000 2
(0.7)常数项 0.000 4
(0.02)-0.077 1***
(-10.69)0.064 1***
(14.56)0.064 6***
(13.51)0.026 4**
(5.37)企业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 行业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 年度固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.733 1 0.819 1 0.653 6 0.722 0 0.797 2 观测值 237 551 296 450 1 320 056 1 352 530 905 418
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表 6 不同进口贸易经验的回归结果
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 进口次数不少于6 进口次数不少于7 进口次数不少于8 进口次数不少于9 进口次数不少于10 qualityikt 0.019 7***
(75.98)0.020 4***
(77.78)0.021 1***
(79.10)0.021 5***
(79.91)0.022 3***
(81.78)lntfpikt 0.016 5***
(19.59)0.016 3***
(19.07)0.017 6***
(20.30)0.017 7***
(20.30)0.017 4***
(19.75)lnageikt -0.003 4***
(-11.27)-0.003 5***
(-11.43)-0.003 9***
(-12.68)-0.003 8***
(-11.94)-0.003 6***
(-11.43)lnsizeikt 0.000 6***
(2.93)0.000 3*
(1.84)0.000 4**
(2.32)0.000 4**
(2.43)0.000 3
(1.52)常数项 -0.023 1***
(-6.78)-0.022 5***
(-6.62)-0.026 9***
(-7.87)-0.031 4***
(-9.18)-0.037 0***
(-10.72)企业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 行业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 年度固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.751 4 0.760 4 0.768 7 0.776 7 0.784 4 观测值 1 945 379 1 889 335 1 838 859 1 794 439 1 753 741
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表 7 变量替代的检验结果
变量 因变量替换-前向垂直专业 因变量替换-后向垂直专业 自变量替换 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) qualityikt 0.007 6***
(79.89)0.007 4***
(77.46)-0.002 3***
(-68.73)-0.002 3***
(-67.47)0.010 8***
(130.53)0.010 6***
(127.26)lntfpikt 0.004 6***
(15.59)0.000 5***
(4.96)0.010 3***
(13.88)lnageikt -0.000 8***
(-7.47)0.000 4***
(11.00)-0.001 7***
(-6.23)lnsizeikt 0.000 2***
(2.82)0.000 2***
(9.41)0.000 3
(1.57)常数项 0.042 5***
(37.03)0.036 8***
(28.56)0.112 3***
(271.24)0.110 0***
(236.73)0.012 0***
(4.18)-0.000 3
(-0.08)企业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 行业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 年度固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.692 7 0.692 2 0.824 1 0.824 0 0.705 5 0.705 0 观测值 2 390 119 2 344 149 2 390 119 2 344 149 2 390 119 2 344 149
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表 8 内生性问题的处理
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) 滞后一期变量 滞后二期变量 以滞后一阶变量
为工具变量以滞后二期变量
为工具变量qualityikt 0.021 9***
(79.15)0.025 7***
(88.78)0.054 2***
(180.21)0.055 8***
(178.80)lntfpikt 0.016 3***
(19.22)0.018 6***
(21.77)0.060 0***
(108.73)0.057 3***
(98.31)lnageikt -0.003 9***
(-12.16)-0.004 2***
(-13.30)-0.003 6***
(-20.51)-0.004 0***
(-21.97)lnsizeikt 0.000 4**
(2.28)0.000 4*
(1.86)0.010 6***
(106.33)0.010 0***
(94.23)常数项 -0.063 7***
(-17.06)-0.077 7***
(-21.84)-0.069 6***
(-56.66)-0.061 8***
(-48.09)企业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes 行业固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes 年度固定效应 Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.785 6 0.822 7 0.052 6 0.053 6 观测值 1 789 988 1 605 642 1 789 629 1 605 508 注：(1)(2)列括号内为t值；(3)(4)列括号内为Z值；***、**和*分别表示1%、5%和10%的显著性水平。
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