The Effect of Internet on Chinese Firm's Export and Its Analysis
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摘要: 互联网发展作为重大的外部技术冲击影响着企业的出口行为。这种影响主要体现在静态上的市场进入效应以及动态上的市场渗透效应两个方面。基于中国与贸易国家双边网址链接数据的实证研究表明，互联网的应用显著冲抵了地理空间对企业出口的阻滞作用，使企业进入出口市场的概率提升了22.3%；而在动态意义上，出口企业借助互联网调整资源投入，实现了次年出口市场59.4%的市场增长率，从而锚定了企业在出口市场的生存。研究还表明，中国企业进入不同收入水平国家存在互联网效应的差异性。在政策意义上，中国应深化“互联网+”战略的实施，培育新的出口贸易优势。Abstract: As a major external impact of technology, internet development impacts firms' export behavior, mainly embodied by the market-entry effect in static terms and the market-penetration effect in dynamic terms. Based on the empirical study of hyperlink data between China and trade destination countries, this study shows that the application of internet significantly reduces the blocking influence of geographical space, and increases the probability of enterprises entering the export market by 22.3 percent. In a dynamic sense, export enterprises achieve market growth by 59.4 percent in the second year after the entry into foreign market through the resource adjustment via internet using, and anchor their existence in the foreign market as a result. It is also showed that the internet effects vary across countries with different income levels when Chinese enterprises enter such markets. In the policy sense, China should deepen the internet plus strategy to enhance new export trade advantages.
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表 1 各变量含义及数据来源
解释变量 含义 数据来源 Trade 中国企业对外贸易规模 中国海关数据库 Link 互联网双边网址链接数量 Chung (2011)[22] Dist 中国与出口目的国的地理距离 CEPII Geography数据库 Coast 出口目的国的海岸线长度 CIA World Factbook数据库 Prod 企业生产率 中国工业企业数据库，根据LP方法测算 Wage 企业工资 中国工业企业数据库 GDP 出口目的国GDP 世界银行WDI数据库 pgdp 出口目的国人均GDP 世界银行WDI数据库 English 出口目的国官方语言是否为英语 CEPII Geography数据库 
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表 2 互联网市场进入效应回归结果
解释变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Link 0.225***(174.00) 0.195***(118.97) 0.198***(120.04) 0.098***(34.09) 0.104***(36.31) Dist -0.047***(-13.61) -0.046***(-13.85) -0.129***(-33.67) -0.162***(-41.15) Coast 0.024***(29.97) 0.024***(30.19) 0.010***(11.68) 0.003***(3.99) Prod 0.039***(14.70) 0.039***(14.92) 0.040***(15.04) Wage 0.039(19.80) 0.040***(20.28) 0.041***(20.54) GDP 0.133(40.63) 0.117***(35.68) pgdp 0.059(15.63) 0.037***(9.79) English 0.199***(35.30) Constant -4.266***(-241.11) -3.627***(-86.62) -4.260***(-94.72) -6.634***(-103.40) -5.473***(-82.83) R2 0.056 2 0.057 8 0.060 7 0.065 2 0.067 4 样本数 848 360 848 360 848 360 848 360 848 360 说明：***、**、*分别表示在1%、5%和10%的水平上显著；括号中数值为t值。表 4、表 6同。
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表 3 互联网对企业出口概率的回归结果
变量 Link Dist Coast Prod Wage GDP pgdp English 弹性系数 0.017 -0.027 0.001 0.007 0.007 0.019 0.006 0.036 t值 36.31 -41.15 3.99 15.04 20.54 35.68 9.79 35.30 中值点的弹性 0.223 -0.236 0.004 0.049 0.054 0.518 0.063 0.005
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表 4 互联网市场进入效应的分样本回归结果
解释变量 低收入组别国家 高收入组别国家 小企业 中等企业 大企业 Link 0.132***(31.18) 0.023***(5.07) 0.083***(15.32) 0.111***(28.23) 0.124***(18.73) Dist -0.189***(-37.34) -0.003(-0.33) -0.212***(-28.75) -0.143***(-26.41) -0.138***(-15.01) Coast 0.028***(19.14) 0.016***(11.48) 0.004**(2.10) 0.004***(3.50) 0.003(1.48) Prod 0.063***(16.44) 0.020***(5.58) 0.035***(6.98) 0.041***(10.84) 0.037***(6.11) Wage 0.036***(12.57) 0.047***(17.27) -0.017***(-3.33) 0.005(1.05) 0.030***(4.78) GDP -0.008(-1.42) 0.193***(42.08) 0.154***(25.30) 0.110***(24.30) 0.075***(9.62) pgdp 0.260***(39.93) -0.592***(-29.76) 0.024***(3.18) 0.046***(8.82) 0.040***(4.83) English -0.019*(-1.60) 0.134***(16.07) 0.221***(20.40) 0.190***(24.54) 0.191***(14.90) Constant -4.771***(-40.03) -1.137***(-4.59) -5.210***(-40.24) -5.342***(-56.73) -4.680***(-30.43) R2 0.081 0 0.064 6 0.077 1 0.065 2 0.056 0 样本数 434 011 414 349 245 274 450 819 152 267
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表 5 匹配变量平衡检验结果
匹配变量 样本 均值 标准偏差
(%)误差消减 t-test 处理组 对照组 t P>|t| Link 匹配前
匹配后14.027
14.02713.753
14.03120.0
-0.398.5 25.29
-0.400.89
1.01Dist 匹配前
匹配后8.7231
8.7238.7261
8.727-0.4
-0.6-33.7 -0.56
-0.751.09
1.03Coast 匹配前
匹配后8.2755
8.27517.8807
8.27916.1
-0.299.0 20.35
-0.220.79
0.95Prod 匹配前
匹配后7.7221
7.72197.7432
7.7081-2.3
1.534.2 -2.90
1.960.81
0.83Wage 匹配前
匹配后8.1898
8.19078.3496
8.1759-13.2
1.290.7 -16.64
1.590.86
0.91GDP 匹配前
匹配后27.786
27.78527.476
27.78122.8
0.398.6 28.81
0.411.04
1.04pgdp 匹配前
匹配后10.488
10.48810.453
10.4887.3
-0.199.0 9.18
-0.090.86
0.98English 匹配前
匹配后0.271 83
0.271 690.219 11
0.269 6112.3
0.596.1 15.46
0.60-
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表 6 互联网市场渗透效应的回归结果
解释变量 全样本 低收入组别国家 高收入组别国家 小企业 中等企业 大企业 Link 0.043***(3.81) 0.040**(2.35) 0.078***(3.69) 0.010(0.41) 0.047***(3.16) 0.063***(2.64) Constant -3.049***(-11.11) -2.968***(-8.09) -0.229(-0.20) -4.709***(-7.46) -3.542***(-9.24) -1.802***(-3.09) R2 0.013 8 0.011 2 0.018 1 0.013 1 0.011 0 0.015 2 样本数 63 786 33 990 29 796 13 112 35 650 15 024
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