On the Impact of Technological Progress in Industrial Robot on Employment: A Theoretical Model Framework
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摘要: 对制造业工业机器人技术进步的就业效应进行建模分析, 发现中国制造业企业使用第二代工业机器人一方面会产生就业破坏效应, 另一方面也会产生就业创造效应; 使用智能机器人替代第二代工业机器人, 将会在前两种就业效应的基础上再新增智能机器人的就业挤出效应, 即这一替代过程对就业的负面影响更大。因此, 我国政府应在试点的基础上分阶段稳步推进制造企业的“自动化”“智能化”发展, 要做好被替代劳动力的职业培训, 全面提升制造业的人力资本。Abstract: Through modeling and analyzing the employment effect of the technological progress in industrial robots in manufacturing industry, it is found that: the application of the second generation industrial robots in Chinese manufacturing industry not only brings about the employment destruction effect, but also produces the employment creation effect; the use of intelligent robots to replace the second generation industrial robots will add the employment crowding-out effect of intelligent robots on the basis of the former two employment effects, that is, the replacement process will have a greater negative impact on employment. Therefore, it is recommended that Chinese government should steadily promote the "automation" and "intellectualization" of manufacturers on the basis of pilot projects, provide a good vocational training for the substituted labor forces, enhance the human capital of the manufacturing industry comprehensively.
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