The Impact of Digital Financial Development on the Risk Sharing Function of Family Social Networks: Based on the Perspective of Household Financial Vulnerability
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摘要: 提高居民家庭的抗风险韧性、降低其金融脆弱性是防范规模性返贫风险的关键。数字金融的发展能够提升长尾群体的金融服务可得性,部分替代熟人借贷,从而在一定程度上影响了家庭社会关系网络的风险分担。使用2019年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)的实证研究发现,社会关系网络能够降低家庭的金融脆弱性,实现对家庭风险的分担,且数字金融发展对社会关系网络的风险分担功能具有一定的替代作用。数字金融对家庭社会关系网络风险分担功能的影响机制包括:推动家庭使用数字金融形成借贷行为挤出社会关系网络借贷,降低通过社会关系网络分担风险的需求;提高家庭收入水平以积累审慎性储蓄增强其抗风险能力;促进家庭购买商业保险实现重大风险转移以降低通过社会关系网络分担风险的黏性。相比数字金融覆盖的广度和使用深度,数字化程度对社会关系网络的风险分担功能的替代作用更强;对农村和户主有外出生活或工作经历的家庭而言,数字金融与社会关系网络在分担家庭风险时存在互补关系,否则表现出替代关系。本研究有助于了解数字金融发展背景下家庭风险分担渠道的变化,并帮助脆弱性家庭提高抗风险能力。Abstract: The improvement of the anti-risk resilience of households and the reduction of their financial vulnerability are key to preventing the risk of a large-scale return to poverty. The development of digital finance can improve the availability of financial services for the "long-tail group" and partially replace acquaintance lending, thus affecting the risk sharing of household social networks to a certain extent. Against the above background, the study analyzes the role of social networks and digital finance on household risk sharing based on the perspective of household financial vulnerability by using the data of 2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The study finds that the social networks can reduce the financial vulnerability of households and realize the sharing of household risks, while the development of digital finance has a certain substitution effect on the risk-sharing function of social networks. Through mechanisms analyzed, the influencing mechanisms of the digital finance on the risk-sharing function of the family social network include the following: promoting the use of digital finance by households to form lending behaviors to crowd out social network lending, reducing the need to share risks through social networks; increasing household income levels to accumulate prudent savings to enhance the risk-resistant capacity of households; promoting the purchase of commercial insurance by households to achieve significant risk transfer to reduce the risk-sharing function of social networks; and reducing the stickiness of risk-sharing. Further analysis reveals that the degree of digitization is a stronger substitute for the risk-sharing function of social networks than the breadth of coverage and depth of use of digital finance; at the same time, for rural areas and households whose heads have experience of working or living outside the home, there is a complementary relationship between digital finance and social networks in sharing household risks, whereas for urban areas and households whose heads do not have experience of living or working outside the home, the above two exhibit a substitution relationship. The study helps to understand the changes in risk-sharing channels of households in the context of the development of digital finance and the mechanisms of these changes, and sheds light on the measures that can be taken to help vulnerable households improve their resilience to the risk.
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Key words:
- digital finance /
- social network /
- risk sharing /
- household finance /
- vulnerability
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表 1 描述性统计
变量名称 定义描述 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值 金融脆弱性(HFV) 从负债水平、收入波动、流动性管理能力、投资风险管理能力以及保险保障五个方面构建的综合指标 0.121 0.153 0 1 社会关系网络(Socialnet) “红白喜事的礼品和礼金支出”与“过节红包礼品转移性支出”之和取对数 4.591 3.9 0 13.311 数字金融(DFI) 用数字支付、数字理财和数字信贷构建的综合指标 0.567 0.551 0 3 年龄(Age) 户主年龄 53.512 12.772 18 100 性别(Gender) 男取值为0,女取值为1 0.204 0.403 0 1 婚姻状态(Married) 已婚取值为1,否则取值为0 0.878 0.327 0 1 受教育水平(Edu) 文化水平,取值分别从1(文盲)~9(博士) 3.311 1.568 1 9 健康状况(Health) 取值分别从1(非常不健康)~5(非常健康) 3.28 1 1 5 老年人占比(Old) 老年人数/总人数 0.2 0.339 0 1 少儿占比(Child) 少儿人数/总人数 0.114 0.169 0 0.833 家庭规模(Size) 家庭总人口数 3.208 1.519 1 15 表 2 基准回归结果
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) OLS 2SLS HFV HFV 第一阶段 第二阶段 Socialnet -0.003 1*** -0.004 1*** -0.005 8*** (0.000 3) (0.000 4) (0.000 5) DFI -0.025 9*** -0.386 8*** (0.003 4) (0.031 5) Socialnet × DFI 0.002 2*** 0.004 7*** (0.000 5) (0.000 8) IV 0.244 3*** (0.025 3) Age -0.006 7*** -0.006 9*** -0.014 9*** -0.012 0*** (0.000 7) (0.000 7) (0.001 9) (0.000 8) Age2 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** 0.000 0 0.000 1*** (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) Gender 0.004 0 0.004 9* 0.060 0*** 0.025 8*** (0.002 6) (0.002 6) (0.007 9) (0.003 2) Married -0.020 8*** -0.021 6*** -0.050 9*** -0.039 3*** (0.003 6) (0.003 6) (0.010 0) (0.004 0) Edu -0.019 5*** -0.018 2*** 0.097 2*** 0.015 7*** (0.000 7) (0.000 7) (0.002 3) (0.003 1) Health -0.018 5*** -0.017 7*** 0.043 1*** -0.002 4 (0.001 1) (0.001 1) (0.003 2) (0.001 7) Old 0.004 6 0.002 1 -0.155 7*** -0.053 1*** (0.004 2) (0.004 2) (0.012 8) (0.006 5) Child 0.024 9*** 0.022 3*** -0.128 3*** -0.023 9*** (0.008 2) (0.008 2) (0.024 3) (0.009 1) Size 0.002 7*** 0.003 8*** 0.066 2*** 0.027 1*** (0.000 9) (0.000 9) (0.002 8) (0.002 3) Constant 0.427 0*** 0.445 2*** 0.244 3*** 0.751 7*** (0.019 7) (0.019 8) (0.025 3) (0.032 8) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 观测值 21 761 21 761 21 761 21 761 R2 0.099 1 0.101 9 0.354 6 0.100 6 注:括号内为聚类稳健标准误,*p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01。下表同。 表 3 替代效应风险分担机制
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 需求端 需求端 Pli Ifp Pli Pbr Dfibr DFI -0.885 5*** 0.979 1*** -1.926 2*** 2.094 3*** (0.042 8) (0.094 8) (0.241 3) (0.248 6) Ifp -0.452 1*** (0.054 9) Age -0.002 8 -0.084 4*** 0.004 8 0.006 0 -0.067 1 (0.012 0) (0.013 7) (0.013 4) (0.013 8) (0.065 9) Age2 0.000 2 0.000 8*** 0.000 1 -0.000 3** 0.000 2 (0.000 1) (0.000 1) (0.000 1) (0.000 1) (0.000 7) Gender 0.126 7** 0.072 3 0.124 3** 0.088 7* 0.374 9 (0.050 8) (0.061 6) (0.057 1) (0.051 0) (0.290 2) Married 0.086 9 -0.047 3 0.153 6** -0.477 7*** -0.625 9 (0.064 6) (0.090 5) (0.075 7) (0.064 3) (0.383 7) Edu -0.075 9*** 0.184 9*** -0.061 8*** -0.114 8*** -0.240 5*** (0.013 9) (0.016 4) (0.014 9) (0.016 0) (0.087 7) Health -0.112 2*** 0.067 2** -0.057 7** -0.384 6*** -0.219 5 (0.021 3) (0.028 0) (0.025 8) (0.022 6) (0.160 3) Old 0.155 1 -0.594 0*** 0.020 2 -0.338 1*** -0.819 5 (0.100 1) (0.161 4) (0.143 7) (0.100 7) (1.227 4) Child 0.087 0 -0.760 9*** -0.071 8 -0.008 2 0.813 5 (0.141 5) (0.173 2) (0.154 3) (0.148 1) (0.793 1) Size 0.015 2 0.132 1*** 0.033 0* 0.181 0*** -0.090 0 (0.016 7) (0.020 8) (0.019 3) (0.015 9) (0.110 1) Constant 3.155 8*** -1.101 3*** 1.787 2*** 6.235 6*** -3.760 7** (0.355 8) (0.391 7) (0.385 9) (0.789 7) (1.904 5) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 观测值 21 740 11 712 11 712 21 761 16 940 表 4 增收效应及商业保险购买风险分担机制
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) Business Bshare Ishare Cominsur DFI 1.270 1*** 0.061 7*** 0.0013*** 0.835 3*** (0.050 3) (0.006 4) (0.000 4) (0.053 5) Age -0.006 2 -0.003 1 -0.000 2* 0.150 8*** (0.014 0) (0.002 1) (0.000 1) (0.018 5) Age2 -0.000 1 0.000 0 0.000 0* -0.001 9*** (0.000 1) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 2) Gender -0.028 2 -0.004 4 -0.000 0 0.336 2*** (0.056 8) (0.007 8) (0.000 4) (0.056 3) Married 0.294 2*** 0.004 9 0.000 7 0.193 4** (0.085 0) (0.013 8) (0.000 5) (0.084 9) Edu -0.094 8*** -0.008 2*** 0.000 1 0.194 0*** (0.015 8) (0.002 1) (0.000 1) (0.015 7) Health 0.181 9*** 0.009 7*** 0.000 0 0.098 8*** (0.023 9) (0.003 2) (0.000 2) (0.025 8) Old -1.038 3*** -0.012 0 -0.000 7** 0.359 3** (0.140 3) (0.009 2) (0.000 3) (0.142 4) Child -0.011 2 0.055 0** 0.000 1 0.204 0 (0.150 6) (0.022 3) (0.001 4) (0.167 0) Size 0.132 3*** 0.000 3 -0.000 3** -0.106 2*** (0.017 4) (0.002 1) (0.000 1) (0.022 8) Constant -4.1458*** 0.095 1 0.004 0 -6.467 4*** (0.404 9) (0.061 9) (0.003 8) (0.469 1) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 观测值 21 760 21 674 21 674 21 761 R2 0.013 3 0.004 7 表 5 稳健性检验
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 剔除部分样本 替换数字金融变量 替换社会关系网络指标 Socialnet -0.003 2*** -0.004 2*** -0.003 1*** -0.010 6*** (0.000 3) (0.000 4) (0.000 3) (0.002 7) DFI -0.024 2*** -0.032 1*** (0.003 8) (0.011 4) Socialnet × DFI 0.002 1*** (0.000 5) DFIIC -0.109 6*** (0.009 6) Socialnet × DFIIC 0.002 5*** (0.000 9) Commexp -0.003 1*** -0.002 7*** (0.000 8) (0.000 9) Commexp × DFI 0.002 0** (0.001 5) Age -0.006 9*** -0.007 1*** -0.006 7*** -0.006 7*** -0.006 8*** -0.007 0*** (0.000 8) (0.000 8) (0.000 7) (0.000 7) (0.000 7) (0.000 7) Age2 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) Gender 0.004 5 0.005 3* 0.004 0 0.004 1 0.003 1 0.004 1 (0.002 9) (0.002 9) (0.002 6) (0.002 6) (0.002 6) (0.002 6) Married -0.021 8*** -0.022 4*** -0.020 8*** -0.020 9*** -0.022 6*** -0.023 7*** (0.004 0) (0.004 0) (0.003 6) (0.003 6) (0.003 6) (0.003 6) Edu -0.020 3*** -0.019 1*** -0.019 5*** -0.019 5*** -0.020 3*** -0.018 8*** (0.000 8) (0.000 8) (0.000 7) (0.000 7) (0.000 7) (0.000 7) Health -0.019 3*** -0.018 6*** -0.018 5*** -0.018 4*** -0.019 1*** -0.018 4*** (0.001 2) (0.001 2) (0.001 1) (0.001 1) (0.001 1) (0.001 1) Old 0.004 4 0.002 0 0.004 6 0.004 4 0.002 9 0.000 4 (0.004 6) (0.004 6) (0.004 2) (0.004 2) (0.004 2) (0.004 2) Child 0.026 4*** 0.024 1*** 0.024 9*** 0.024 7*** 0.023 6*** 0.022 0*** (0.008 8) (0.008 8) (0.008 2) (0.008 2) (0.008 2) (0.008 2) Size 0.003 1*** 0.004 0*** 0.002 7*** 0.002 7*** 0.003 5*** 0.004 4*** (0.001 0) (0.001 0) (0.000 9) (0.000 9) (0.000 9) (0.000 9) Constant 0.475 8*** 0.488 1*** 0.427 0*** 0.830 6*** 0.439 9*** 0.453 1*** (0.021 8) (0.021 8) (0.019 7) (0.039 0) (0.020 2) (0.020 4) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 观测值 18 915 18 915 21 761 21 761 21 761 21 761 R2 0.095 7 0.098 0 0.099 1 0.099 4 0.094 2 0.096 8 表 6 数字金融不同维度的分析
变量 (1) (2) (3) Socialnet -0.009 9***(0.002 8) -0.008 4***(0.001 8) -0.015 9***(0.004 9) coverage_breadth -0.122 7***(0.010 9) Socialnet × coverage_breadth 0.002 4**(0.001 0) usage_depth -0.077 9***(0.006 8) Socialnet × usage_depth 0.001 8***(0.000 6) digitization_level -0.163 9***(0.014 4) Socialnet × digitization_level 0.003 3***(0.001 3) Age -0.006 7***(0.000 7) -0.006 7***(0.000 7) -0.006 7***(0.000 7) Age2 0.000 1***(0.000 0) 0.000 1***(0.000 0) 0.000 1***(0.000 0) Gender 0.004 1(0.002 6) 0.004 1(0.002 6) 0.004 1(0.002 6) Married -0.020 9***(0.003 6) -0.020 9***(0.003 6) -0.020 9***(0.003 6) Edu -0.019 5***(0.000 7) -0.019 5***(0.000 7) -0.019 5***(0.000 7) Health -0.018 4***(0.001 1) -0.018 4***(0.001 1) -0.018 4***(0.001 1) Old 0.004 4(0.004 2) 0.004 3(0.004 2) 0.004 4(0.004 2) Child 0.024 7***(0.008 2) 0.024 8***(0.008 2) 0.024 9***(0.008 2) Size 0.002 7***(0.000 9) 0.002 7***(0.000 9) 0.002 7***(0.000 9) Constant 0.843 3***(0.040 3) 0.727 9***(0.031 4) 1.138 1***(0.063 5) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 观测值 21 761 21 761 21 761 R2 0.099 3 0.099 5 0.099 4 表 7 城乡对比分析结果
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) 农村样本 城镇样本 Socialnet -0.002 8*** -0.003 1*** -0.003 2*** -0.004 8*** (0.000 4) (0.000 6) (0.000 3) (0.000 6) DFI -0.017 5*** -0.028 7*** (0.005 5) (0.004 6) Socialnet × DFI 0.001 2 0.002 8*** (0.000 9) (0.000 6) Age -0.005 5*** -0.005 9*** -0.006 8*** -0.006 9*** (0.001 4) (0.001 4) (0.000 8) (0.000 8) Age2 0.000 0*** 0.000 0*** 0.000 1*** 0.000 1*** (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) Gender 0.015 6*** 0.015 5*** 0.000 4 0.001 1 (0.005 3) (0.005 3) (0.002 9) (0.002 9) Married -0.022 0*** -0.022 6*** -0.019 5*** -0.020 4*** (0.005 8) (0.005 8) (0.004 7) (0.004 7) Edu -0.022 2*** -0.021 4*** -0.018 0*** -0.016 9*** (0.001 8) (0.001 8) (0.000 8) (0.000 8) Health -0.023 4*** -0.022 9*** -0.013 7*** -0.013 0*** (0.001 7) (0.001 7) (0.001 5) (0.001 5) Old -0.003 0 -0.004 1 0.008 6 0.005 9 (0.006 7) (0.006 7) (0.005 3) (0.005 3) Child 0.015 5 0.013 1 0.030 0*** 0.028 0*** (0.014 0) (0.014 0) (0.010 1) (0.010 1) Size 0.004 9*** 0.005 7*** 0.001 3 0.002 4** (0.001 5) (0.001 5) (0.001 1) (0.001 2) Constant 0.409 6*** 0.426 0*** 0.412 7*** 0.431 8*** (0.044 9) (0.045 2) (0.022 4) (0.022 6) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 观测值 8 916 8 916 12 845 12 845 R2 0.087 8 0.089 0 0.097 9 0.101 3 表 8 户主有无外出生活或工作经历家庭
变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) 有外出生活或工作经历 无外出生活或工作经历 Socialnet -0.003 3*** -0.003 8*** -0.003 1*** -0.004 0*** (0.000 7) (0.001 0) (0.000 3) (0.000 4) DFI -0.018 6** -0.027 4*** (0.009 0) (0.003 8) Socialnet × DFI 0.000 9 0.002 3*** (0.001 2) (0.000 5) Age -0.005 0*** -0.005 1*** -0.004 7*** -0.005 2*** (0.001 4) (0.001 4) (0.000 8) (0.000 8) Age2 0.000 0** 0.000 0** 0.000 0*** 0.000 0*** (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) (0.000 0) Gender 0.008 3 0.009 6 0.0028 0.003 8 (0.007 5) (0.007 6) (0.002 8) (0.002 8) Married -0.009 1 -0.009 8 -0.021 5*** -0.022 6*** (0.008 7) (0.008 7) (0.004 1) (0.004 1) Edu -0.017 4*** -0.016 4*** -0.020 1*** -0.018 6*** (0.001 5) (0.001 6) (0.000 8) (0.000 8) Health -0.019 1*** -0.018 6*** -0.019 9*** -0.019 1*** (0.002 7) (0.002 7) (0.001 2) (0.001 2) Old 0.014 4 0.012 7 0.006 0 0.003 1 (0.010 0) (0.010 0) (0.004 6) (0.004 6) Child 0.013 8 0.013 0 0.040 8*** 0.036 6*** (0.017 5) (0.017 5) (0.009 7) (0.009 8) Size 0.002 5 0.003 3 0.002 4** 0.003 7*** (0.002 0) (0.002 0) (0.001 0) (0.001 0) Constant 0.394 3*** 0.409 2*** 0.374 9*** 0.398 0*** (0.042 5) (0.043 2) (0.024 3) (0.024 4) 省份虚拟变量 控制 控制 控制 控制 观测值 3 696 3 696 16 650 16 650 R2 0.100 5 0.102 3 0.108 7 0.112 0 -
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