Have China's Agricultural Growth Patterns Been Transformed: Based on Empirical Data from 31 Provinces During 1999—2016
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摘要: 中国农业经济要实现更高阶段增长，需要从依赖投资拉动的马克思增长类型向依靠技术进步的库兹涅茨增长类型转变。基于1999—2016年我国31个省份的数据计算农业资本有机构成、农业资本报酬率和农业全要素生产率，研究发现：观察期内农业资本存量快速上升带动了农业资本有机构成大幅度提高，符合马克思增长类型的基本特征；尽管农业资本报酬率下降，但东部、中部和东北地区的农业资本收入份额均向60%的水平收敛，意味着农业增长步入稳态而未陷入马克思增长类型陷阱；综合四大区域的农业全要素生产率与农业产值增长率、农业资本要素收入份额的关系可以推断，中国农业增长类型已经开始向库兹涅茨增长类型转变。Abstract: If China's agricultural economy is to achieve a higher level of growth, it needs to be transformed from the Marx's growth type that relies on investment to the Kuznets' growth type that relies on technological progress. Based on the data in 31 provinces of China from 1999 to 2016 and the calculation of the organic composition of agricultural capital, rate of return on agricultural capital, growth rate of total factor productivity, it is found that the rapid increase in the stock of agricultural capital during the observation period led to a substantial increase in the organic composition of agricultural capital, which was in line with the basic characteristics of Marx's growth type; though the return of agricultural capital declined, the share of agricultural capital income in the eastern, central and northeastern regions of China converged at the same level of about 60%, which means that agricultural growth has entered a steady state without falling into the trap of Marx's growth type; based on the relationship of the total factor productivity of agriculture in the four regions with the growth rate of gross agricultural output, and the share of agricultural capital factor income, it can be inferred that the type of agricultural growth in China has been transformed to the Kuznets' growth type.
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表 1 随机前沿模型测算结果
变量 固定效应模型(FIX) 随机效应模型(RND) 时变衰减模型(ECF) lnFit 0.513***(0.171) 0.551***(0.053) 0.492***(0.040) lnLit -0.038(0.087) -0.017(0.038) 0.149***(0.023) lnK_it 0.200***(0.019) 0.201***(0.005) 0.022***(0.006) 常数项 1.889**(0.852) 2.456***(0.397) 2.021***(0.327) η -0.005***(0.001) R2 0.983 似然函数对数值 219.007 500.055 样本数 558 558 558 注：*、* *、* * *分别代表在10%、5%和1%的水平上显著。 
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